5 Biggest Box Office Gambles Of 2026, Ranked

The box office has been an absolute rollercoaster over the last handful of years, one that was more up and down than ever in 2025. Last year ended with domestic ticket sales failing to cross the $9 billion mark for the second year in a row. It was a tough blow but December ended strong and there is hope on the horizon, with 2026 offering a mixed slate that includes lots of heavy-hitters. From Christopher Nolan's "The Odyssey" to "Avengers: Doomsday," there are plenty of sure things on the docket. So much so that 2026 could (emphasis on could) be a banner year for the box office. 

However, for every safe bet like "Toy Story 5," there is a riskier project that some studio has made in the hopes of capturing lightning in a bottle. Can the new "Street Fighter" movie break out in a way that previous adaptations of the game couldn't? Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" bring "Star Wars" back to glory on the big screen? There are a great many question marks as we enter this new year.

We're going to look at the biggest risks on the calendar this year. Yes, movies like "Project Hail Mary" are risky. But what are the riskiest movies coming our way this year? Which forthcoming cinematic offerings represent the biggest rolls of the dice? We're going to break it down, making our way to the most high-risk movie of the year. Let's get into it.

Director Danny Boyle and writer Alex Garland reunited after years of patient waiting by zombie lovers around the world, delivering "28 Years Later" last year. Serving as a sequel to "28 Days Later" and "28 Weeks Later," it showed us what England looks like nearly three decades into reckoning with the Rage Virus. It was also a hit, taking in $151 million worldwide.

Sony Pictures made a larger gamble on the franchise by making two movies back-to-back, with "28 Years Later: The Bone Temple" hitting theaters later this month. Directed by Nia DaCosta, the sequel has the benefit of potentially piggybacking off of the momentum built by its predecessor. At the same time, the previous movie was a decent hit against a reported $60 million budget, but not resoundingly so. There is little room for drop-off to still achieve hit status with the follow-up.

Rather crucially, the ending of "28 Years Later" might have turned some people off, as it was exceptionally strange. Is "The Bone Temple," on the whole, as strange as what teed it up? Mind you, Sony is now developing a third installment that will bring back Cillian Murphy as Jim, with Boyle returning to direct. To fully justify that, this sequel has to at least come close to matching what the last movie did. If it takes a big dip, these trilogy plans could get dicier. But Sony might be content to take the risk in light of the potential upside they gain by completing the trilogy and bringing things full circle. That's why it's not higher up on this list. 

"28 Years Later: The Bone Temple" hits theaters on January 16.

It would be silly to doubt Warner Bros. after the year they had in 2025. After suffering a few misfires like "The Alto Knights" and "Mickey 17," the studio rebounded in a big way, delivering hits like "Weapons," "Sinners," "A Minecraft Movie," "Superman," "F1," and "Final Destination Bloodlines." They were the first studio ever to have six movies open to $40 million or more in a row. So, why doubt director Maggie Gyllenhaal's "The Bride!" now? Because on paper, it's still a big risk.

Carrying a hefty $80 million production budget, it's exceedingly expensive for a horror movie masquerading as a period drama, serving as a riff on "The Bride of Frankenstein." This version centers on Frankenstein's monster (Christian Bale), who seeks to create a companion and revive a young woman as The Bride (Jessie Buckley). The trailer makes it look like "Frankenstein" by way of "Bonnie and Clyde." It's a fascinating pitch.

But can this movie make the $200 million or so that it needs to make in order to be considered a success theatrically? That's a tall order. A total of 24 movies cleared that bar in 2025. That's not very many. This one, admittedly, has a stellar cast, but Gyllenhaal, as a director, has never made anything this big. Can this be her big coming out moment as a blockbuster filmmaker? Everyone needs one. Optimistically, "The Bride!" could be the next "Weapons" ($269 million worldwide/$38 million budget) so to speak. Or it could be "Mickey 17" ($133 million worldwide/$118 million budget). As of right now, it feels like a coin flip — and an expensive one at that. 

"The Bride!" hits theaters on March 6.

Phil Lord and Chris Miller are major filmmakers who have made some big hits, including the "Jump Street" movies. As producers, they've shepherded the "Spider-Verse" movies, which are also big hits. But as directors? They've never taken on anything as big as "Project Hail Mary," a massive-budget sci-fi blockbuster starring Ryan Gosling. They technically got close with "Solo: A Star Wars Story" ... before being fired halfway through production. All the more reason Amazon and MGM should be a little nervous about this one.

Based on "The Martian" author Andy Weir's best-selling book of the same name, the movie centers on an astronaut who tries to save Earth while alone in outer space. "Project Hail Mary" carries a whopping $150 million production budget, meaning it would need to make at least $400 million to be considered an outright success theatrically. That's no small thing these days. Only 15 movies hit that mark globally last year.

Yes, Gosling had a monster hit with "Barbie" ($1.44 billion worldwide) in 2023, but he also recently had a monster flop with "The Fall Guy" ($181 million worldwide/$130 million budget) in 2024. Even though this film is based on a book, it's essentially trying to sell an original idea to the masses. That can be really tough at this scale these days, unless your name is James Cameron. Granted, Amazon has Prime Video to lean on and doesn't need this thing to profit outright, necessarily. But it's a $150 million-plus investment all the same, and in the current landscape, that's nothing if not exceedingly risky. Fortunately, a March release means less competition, which could work in its favor. 

"Project Hail Mary" hits theaters on March 20.

"Meet the Parents" was a $330 million box office smash hit in 2000. It helped cement Ben Stiller as a bankable lead and turned Robert De Niro into a legitimate comedy threat. The subsequent sequels, "Meet the Fockers" ($522 million) and "Little Fockers" ($310 million) were also huge hits, particularly the former. But that was a long time ago, as the last entry in this franchise hit theaters in 2010. 16 years later, Universal Pictures has united the core cast in the hopes that nostalgia can deliver another big hit. Unfortunately, there's a lot working against "Focker In-Law," aka "Meet the Parents 4," in the here and now.

De Niro is no longer the box office draw he once was. Stiller is more of a director these days. Comedies regularly struggle at the box office and are largely relegated to streaming these days. Let's also not forget that "Little Fockers" cost a staggering $100 million a decade and a half ago. Can Universal get clever with the budget for "Focker In-Law," even with the addition of stars like Ariana Grande ("Wicked") and Skyler Gisondo ("Superman")? It's difficult to imagine this film costing less than $70 million, give or take. Can it really interest enough people to make over/under $200 million in 2026? 

The risk is crystal clear. This feels more like a legacy sequel that nobody is asking for. Though not an apples-to-apples situation, it feels like "Tron: Legacy" making $400 million in 2010 only for Disney to make "Tron: Ares" in 2025 and see it flop badly with just $142 million worldwide. But who knows? Maybe there is enough nostalgia for the Fockers to make it work.

"Focker In-Law" is set to hit theaters on November 25.

No movie on the 2026 slate feels like it has more pressure to deliver than Pixar's "Hoppers." Dating back to "Toy Story" in 1995, Pixar has been a haven for original animation, churning out hit after hit. In the 2000s, it became one of the premiere destinations for original cinema, oddly enough, churning out beloved titles like "Up," "Wall-E," and "Brave," among many others. Sad to say, the last handful of years have been rough for Pixar, with "Onward," "Soul," "Luca," and "Turning Red" all given the Disney+ treatment in the wake of the pandemic.

That, in turn, made people view Pixar as something they could watch at home for free. Pixar delivered a massive hit in "Inside Out 2" ($1.69 billion worldwide) in 2024, but that was a sequel. Pixar hasn't had a non-sequel hit since "Coco" ($814 million worldwide) in 2017. "Elemental" ($484 million worldwide) was a qualified win in 2023, but not an outright hit. "Elio" ($154 million worldwide) was one of the biggest flops of 2025. These movies generally cost around $200 million to produce and Disney can't keep losing that kind of money forever.

"Hoppers" sees scientists discover a way to "hop" human consciousness into lifelike robotic animals, allowing people to communicate with animals as animals. Using the new technology, Mabel (Piper Curda) uncovers mysteries within the animal world.

Are audiences ready to turn a Pixar original into a hit once again? If this doesn't land, what becomes of Pixar originals in the future? "Toy Story 5" is also coming this year. Will Pixar be relegated to a sequel machine for the foreseeable future? The pressure is on in a big, bad way.

"Hoppers" hits theaters on March 6.