Will Disney's Live-Action Moana And Evil Dead Burn Deliver A Double Box Office Win?

The summer box office is rolling right along and it's one of the healthiest summers we've had in quite some time. Yes, "Supergirl" may have flopped at the box office, but unexpected hits such as "Obsession" and "Backrooms" have more than made up for it. Now, the industry is about to get a double-dose of success as both Disney's live-action "Moana" and Warner Bros.' "Evil Dead Burn" make their way to theaters. It's going to make for a winning double bill.

As of this writing, Disney's live-action reimagining of "Moana" is expected to pull in between $70 and $89 million when it arrives next weekend, per Box Office Theory. Meanwhile, "Evil Dead Burn" is looking at a debut in the $21 to $30 million range. In both cases, these represent winning figures for the respective franchises. It's just that the relative nature of the box office is going to make one a bigger win than the other.

In the case of "Moana," these estimates may look somewhat low, in light of recent history. "Moana 2" led the biggest Thanksgiving ever at the box office in 2024, opening to an insane $225.4 million across the five-day holiday weekend. It went on to make over $1 billion worldwide. It's fairly easy to have some recency bias here and assume that the live-action remake should be able to do similar numbers.

Yes, Disney made more than $7 billion from remakes between 2010 and 2019, but many of them weren't $1 billion hits. Let's also not forget that the original "Moana" opened to $56.6 million en route to $684.3 million worldwide. The remake simply appears to be charting a course similar to the original. Even against an over/under $200 million budget, that would be a win for Disney.

Directed by Thomas Kail ("Hamilton"), the remake centers on Moana (Catherine Lagaʻaia) who answers the Ocean's call and voyages beyond the reef of her island of Motunui with the infamous demigod Maui (Dwayne Johnson) on a journey to restore prosperity to her people. The live-action "Moana" makes sense for both Disney and The Rock, who could both use a sure thing right now. Unless it falls off a cliff after opening weekend and generates a shocking lack of overseas interest, it currently looks like it's going to be a winner.

As for "Evil Dead Burn," an over/under $20 million domestic opening puts this right in the sweet spot for the long-running horror franchise. That would put it in the same neighborhood as 2013's "Evil Dead," which gave the B-movie franchise mainstream success for the first time, opening to $25.7 million en route to $99 million worldwide. It's also in the same neighborhood as 2023's "Evil Dead Rise" ($24.5 million opening/$147.2 million worldwide).

At the higher end of projections, "Burn" could set a new high bar for the "Evil Dead" franchise. That's very impressive considering that the trailers will even make hardened horror fans wince. This 45-year-old franchise still has a lot of gas in the tank. Considering that these movies are generally cheap to produce, it's a slam-dunk for Warner Bros. That's good news given that they also have "Evil Dead Wrath" on deck for 2028.

Directed by Sébastien Vanicek ("Infested"), the latest "Evil Dead" centers on a woman seeking solace with her in-laws after the death of her husband in their secluded family home. One by one, they are transformed into Deadites, which turns the gathering into a family reunion from hell.

The first reactions to "Evil Dead Burn" have been overwhelmingly positive, which will work in the movie's favor. It also doesn't hurt that horror has remained the most consistently reliable genre at the box office over the last several years, with tried and true franchises benefiting from that pretty frequently.

As for "Moana," the trailers have had a lot of people asking the same question. Namely, why did they make the movie at all? It looks very, very similar to the original but that's also kind of the point. For as much groaning as people do about it online, general audiences tend to go see these movies. If it ain't broke, don't fix it is generally Disney's approach to these things.

More than anything, this is the kind of double bill that we could use more of in a healthy theatrical marketplace. We have a big-budget, family-friendly blockbuster releasing on the same weekend as a hardcore, R-rated horror movie. It's perfect summer counterprogramming. In the initial years after the pandemic, studios seemed to steer clear of one another almost regardless of genre considerations, which lowered the ceiling for the overall health of the box office.

While this double bill won't quite be the bombshell box office success that was Barbenheimer when "Barbie" and "Oppenheimer" ruled the summer in 2023, it's following a similar pattern. Hollywood can and should counterprogram like this more often. It's good for studios, it's good for filmmakers, and it's great for theaters. Everybody wins. Granted, it won't always work out this well but it's nice to see when it does.

"Moana" and "Evil Dead Burn" hit theaters on July 10, 2026.