A Game Of Thrones Movie Seems Destined For Disappointment At The Box Office — Here's Why

It's been nearly a decade since "Game of Thrones" ended its eight season run on HBO but the franchise lives on. We have both "House of the Dragon" and "A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms" currently on the air, with more potential spin-offs on the way. Perhaps biggest of all though, a "Game of Thrones" movie is finally happening. For hardcore fans, this is a big deal. Getting to see Westeros on the big screen is a new frontier. For everyone else? Less so. As a result, this may be destined for disappointment at the box office.

Warner Bros. recently announced that "Game of Thrones: Aegon's Quest" will hit theaters in June 2029. Beau Williamson ("Andor") penned the screenplay, with Owen Harris ("A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms," "Mrs. Davis") in the director's chair. The movie is a prequel centered on Aegon I, who was the first Lord of the Seven Kingdoms in author George R.R. Martin's novels. He spawned the Targaryen dynasty, the royal family at the heart of the franchise. 

As Rafael Motamayor wrote for /Film, the "Game Of Thrones" movie is adapting the most boring part of the whole saga. That's not to say that Williamson and Harris can't make it more exciting, but that's problem number one that needs to be addressed. The bigger problem, however, is that this franchise has firmly established itself as premium television with high production value.

As a result, making "Aegon's Quest" into a must-see cinematic event is going to be a tall order. Not to mention that this is undoubtedly going to be a very expensive movie to make, meaning WB needs to put a lot of butts in seats.

This isn't to say that TV shows have never become successful movie franchises. It happens pretty frequently. "Mission: Impossible" was a popular series in the '60s and '70s that led to Tom Cruise's biggest cinematic franchise. "The Simpsons Movie" was a box office hit that embiggened that franchise, taking in $536 million worldwide. There are plenty of other examples.

The problem in this case though is that "Game of Thrones" has been offering blockbuster, cinematic quality entertainment from the comfort of home from the very beginning. Particularly in the streaming era, it's harder than ever to get people to get off the couch and pay to go to an actual movie theater. "Aegon's Conquest" is going to have a blockbuster budget and therefore needs to do blockbuster numbers at the box office. That means getting casual fans — maybe even people who haven't watched the shows — into a theater. That's a tough ask.

"Game of Thrones" is one of the most expensive TV shows of all time. There were massive, epic scale battles. There's almost nothing that a movie can offer that the show didn't already explore, broadly speaking. One of the general advantages of bringing a TV franchise to the big screen is that the budget increases and production quality increases. That's not really the case here.

The final six episodes of "Game of Thrones" cost $15 million each. That's a great deal of production value. Would fans tune in to an "Aegon's Quest" limited series? Almost certainly. But Warner Bros. wants to expand the scope of the franchise and they believe this is the best story to expand into movies. But recent history suggests that box office success is far from guaranteed.

The best comparison is "Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu." Disney spent a ton of money on Disney+ at launch, with "The Mandalorian," the first ever live-action TV show in the "Star Wars" franchise, as the biggest launch title. It too cost around $15 million per episode, with Disney and Lucasfilm understanding that they couldn't allow it to look cheap. It had to be blockbuster quality.

The show was wildly popular and, at least through its first two seasons, was amongst the most acclaimed "Star Wars" projects of the Disney era. Then came the decision to have director Jon Favreau bring Mando and Baby Yoda to the big screen earlier this year. "The Mandalorian and Grogu" set an unwanted record for "Star Wars" at the box office, taking in just $345 million worldwide. It's the lowest-grossing live-action entry in the franchise by a fairly significant margin. 

One of the biggest reasons why it didn't pan out is that audiences decided "we have 'The Mandalorian' at home." It's very easy to imagine more casual "Game of Thrones" fans feeling the same way about "Aegon's Quest."

The caveat here is that "The Mandalorian and Grogu" was met with so-so reviews. If "Aegon's Quest" gets a rapturous reception, that could turn the tide. But that's an absolute must in light of the current state of things. Even then, there's no guarantee that this "GoT" movie can assert itself as a summer blockbuster worthy of the price of admission. It must avoid the "wait to stream it" curse, which is easier said than done.

"Game of Thrones: Aegon's Conquest" is set to hit theaters on June 1, 2029.