Can The Rock And Oscar Buzz Turn The Smashing Machine Into A Box Office Hit?

Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson is pretty arguably the most successful wrestler-turned-actor ever. As for the "best" in that category? That's another conversation entirely, and I would expect a lot of Dave Bautista fans to speak up. The point is that Johnson has become synonymous with box office success, having made more than $15 billion in global ticket sales during his career. The question is, can The Rock (armed with his "franchise Viagra" reputation) turn A24's "The Smashing Machine" into a legitimate winner?

Directed by Benny Safdie ("Uncut Gems"), "The Smashing Machine" is currently eyeing a domestic opening weekend in the $20 million range when it arrives next weekend, per Deadline. The folks at Box Office Theory are slightly less bullish, though, with expectations in the $10 to $19 million range. At the top end of those projections, it would be in a position to become A24's second-biggest box office opening weekend ever behind "Civil War," which debuted to $25.5 million en route to over $100 million globally. ($127.3 million, to be more exact.) That's good company to be in.

The film tells the story of legendary real-life mixed martial arts and UFC fighter Mark Kerr. Johnson plays Kerr, with the trailers for "The Smashing Machine" promising a stunning transformation for the actor. Oscar-nominee Emily Blunt ("Oppenheimer") also stars. The film has generated legitimate Oscar buzz for Johnson during its festival run leading up to its wide theatrical release. That, coupled with The Rock's general ability to get moviegoers out en masse, should easily push this movie to the higher end of current projections.

Competition won't be a huge factor, either. October 3 will also see the release of IFC's dog-focused horror movie "Good Boy," which is currently expected to pull in between $3 and $6 million. Of course, the biggest bit of competition will come from Taylor Swift, who is bringing "The Official Release Party of a Showgirl" to theaters that weekend.

For those who may need a refresher, Swift's "The Eras Tour" movie made an astonishing $249.5 million at the worldwide box office in 2023. When A24 picked this release date, it didn't know Swift would be doing a theatrical release party for her new album. The good news is that these movies are likely going for very different audiences. The other good news is that Swift's album release celebration is a one-weekend deal. A24, meanwhile, is in this for the long haul, hoping for a movie that can play through the end of the year as awards season heats up.

Even on the low end of projections, there is hope. A24's "Materialists" opened to just $11.3 million over the summer and has since legged it out to more than $103 million worldwide. (And that movie didn't have The Rock in it.) Similarly, the budget for Safdie's latest is said to be in the $40 million range. If that's indeed true, an over/under $100 million global finish, coupled with some Oscar love, would make this well worth it for the studio.

While getting people out to theaters for non-franchise fare has been harder than ever, the combination of an audience-friendly story, a powerful star doing something unexpected, and solid buzz could make for a breakout hit here. It absolutely helps that "The Smashing Machine" has earned generally very favorable reviews, with a great deal of praise going to Johnson's performance.

The UFC is very popular. Johnson is very popular. A24 has a faithful audience to some degree. It's not a crowded weekend. As such, there is a very real chance that Johnson's star power can work its magic for a smaller, non-franchise film here, especially if it can hang around beyond opening weekend (assuming word-of-mouth from general moviegoers is good). This could be a turning point for The Rock.

"The Smashing Machine" hits theaters on October 3, 2025.