Early Box Office Tracking For James Gunn's Superman Points To A Heroic Opening Weekend

One of the biggest movies of the summer is nearly upon us as James Gunn's "Superman" gets ready to soar into a theater near you in July. Far from another run of the mill superhero movie, the film will not only introduce audiences to a new Clark Kent (played by David Corenswet), but it will also mark the cinematic start to the new DC Universe that's being headed up by Gunn and David Safran, the co-heads of DC Studios. The movie needs to deliver, and that means doing big business at the box office. Now, we have a sense of what that might look like on opening weekend.

Though it's relatively early in the tracking cycle, "Superman" is currently set to earn anywhere between $90 and $145 million in its opening weekend, depending on which tracking service or distribution sources one is speaking to (per Deadline). But that $90 million figure seems to be on the very conservative side, as Box Office Theory has Gunn's new film taking in between $140 and $185 million during its three-day domestic debut, as of this writing. Either way, it's looking like an opening north of $100 million is all but ensured. The real question is: Just how high can this new Man of Steel fly?

If the movie opens closer to $90 million, a decent comparison might be 2017's "Justice League" ($93.8 million opening/$661.3 million worldwide). That film had its issues, but in terms of dollars and cents, that's in the right ballpark. On the high end, if the movie debuts closer to $180 million, Marvel's "Black Panther: Wakanda Forever" ($181.3 million opening/$859.2 million worldwide) could make for a good comparison, especially since that more closely mirrors pandemic era box office conditions.

Plot details for "Superman" have largely been kept under wraps, but it's not an origin story and will feature quite a few characters from the greater DC Universe. The cast also includes Rachel Brosnahan (Lois Lane), Nicholas Hoult (Lex Luthor), Isabela Merced (Hawkgirl), Nathan Fillion (Guy Gardner), and Edi Gathegi (Mister Terrific).

As far as cost goes, Warner Bros. spent around $225 million to produce "Superman," which doesn't account for the massive global marketing spend that is currently underway. The movie likely needs to make somewhere in the $700 million range to break even in theaters before any other revenue streams are factored in. These current tracking numbers certainly suggest it could get there. It doesn't hurt that the film has a theater-friendly runtime of just over two hours.

What's interesting is that if Gunn's movie ultimately arrives somewhere in the middle of current expectations, it might make very similar money to Zack Snyder's "Man of Steel" ($116.9 million opening/$668 million worldwide). That movie kicked off the old DC Extended Universe, which never quite came together and had a very messy, uneven run from start to finish. Gunn and Safran are hoping very much to avoid such bumps in the road with this DCU reboot.

While they aren't getting too ahead of themselves, "Supergirl" and "Clayface" are due to hit theaters next year, with "Lanterns," "Creature Commandos" season 2, and several other projects in the works on the TV side of things as well. Having some positive momentum would undoubtedly benefit the other DCU titles on the slate.

It's important to note that these numbers are preliminary. It's early and a lot could change between now and the actual release date. Rather crucially, we'll have to see what critics have to say about the movie. If "Superman" arrives with a great deal of buzz, that $180 million figure may start to look a whole lot more realistic. Great word of mouth is what turned Gunn's own "Guardians of the Galaxy" into an unexpected smash hit for Marvel Studios back in 2014. We'll see if Gunn can bring that same magic touch to DC's beloved superhero.

"Superman" hits theaters on July 11, 2025.