Here's What Needs To Happen For Killers Of The Flower Moon To Be A Box Office Hit
Martin Scorsese, one of our greatest living filmmakers (if not one of the greatest of all time), returned over the weekend with his latest film, "Killers of the Flower Moon." Produced by Apple for a whopping $200 million, the film reunites Scorsese with both Leonardo DiCaprio and Robert De Niro, his two most trusted collaborators over the years. The result is a wildly-acclaimed entry on the director's already impressive resume. The question looming now, particularly after opening weekend, is whether or not the mega-budget film can actually become a box office hit. In short, it's complicated. But let's break down the numbers and see what it might take for Apple and all involved to declare this win.
"Flower Moon" opened to $23 million domestically, which put it at number two for the weekend behind "Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour," which pulled in $31 million in its second frame, per Box Office Mojo. Scorsese's latest also pulled in $21 million from overseas markets, which actually made it the number one movie of the weekend internationally. "The Eras Tour" earned $10.5 million overseas over the weekend. That means the film had a global debut of $44 million. Given how uncertain adult-focused, non-franchise films have been during the pandemic era, that seems like a solid result.
Apple partnered with Paramount Pictures on the release, with the studio handling distribution. Paramount isn't necessarily invested in the overall success, since they just get to collect a distribution fee, so a $44 million start probably looks good for them, particularly because we're talking about an R-rated movie with a hulking 3-hour and 26-minute runtime. That's not necessarily an easy sell to the masses. But Scorsese's name carries cache, and DiCaprio may be one of our last movie stars to get audiences into theaters, so that certainly helps.
Breaking down the big picture numbers
The very good news for all involved is that audience and critical reaction has been nothing shy of stellar thus far. "Flower Moon" currently holds a 92% critical approval rating on Rotten Tomatoes to go with an 85% audience score. Even better, it has an A- CinemaScore, which is a strong indicator that word of mouth will be good.
One of the downsides comes into focus when we take a closer look at the international numbers. Is it good that a Martin Scorsese film made more money in terms of raw dollars than Taylor Swift's concert film? Yes, it demonstrates a continued interest in this sort of product in theaters. However, that $21 million was from a whopping 61 overseas markets. So it's not as though the film has a lot of territories left to expand in over the coming weeks/months. This was a global rollout by Paramount and Apple. From here on out, it's all a matter of seeing how long the legs will be.
Working in the movie's favor is the fact that Christopher Nolan's "Oppenheimer," an R-rated, three-hour biopic without much action in it, is one of the highest-grossing movies of the year, earning $945 million globally to date. Under the right circumstances, moviegoers will still turn up for these movies, and they can be leggy. Granted, "Oppenheimer" had a much bigger, $180 million global debut over the summer. Still, it's not as though "Flower Moon" needs to make nearly $1 billion to be considered a success. But how much does it need to make, exactly? That's not an easy question to answer.
Apple, Paramount, and unconventional expectations
Using conventional movie math, a movie with a $200 million budget (not accounting for marketing) would probably need to make somewhere in the $600 million range to be considered a hit, give or take. It's not an exact science. But theaters generally keep half of the revenue from ticket sales so if a movie makes $400 million at the box office, the studio only sees about $200 million of that money, in the end. That being the case, the odds of "Killers of the Flower Moon" becoming an out-and-out theatrical hit are slim.
Now, let's take a look at Scorsese's "The Wolf of Wall Street," which opened to a smaller $18 million domestically but legged out to $406 million worldwide back in 2013. That was also the last time Scorsese had an actual, bonafide theatrical hit, amazingly enough. The odds of a leg-out performance like that in 2023 are slim but not impossible. More realistically, we'd probably be looking at a domestic finish closer to Pixar's "Elemental" ($154 million domestic), if the film has equally superb legs, to go with an over/under finish around $100 million overseas. That would give the film a grand total of around $250 million globally, in a close to best-case-scenario from here.
Broadly speaking, a movie like this pulling in that kind of money would be a win for cinema in general. At the same time, Apple is still going to be in the red by a significant margin after theaters and Paramount take their cuts and marketing costs are factored in. This will also, eventually, be making its way to Apple TV+, meaning there won't be a potentially lucrative VOD window. A Blu-ray release is also far from a guarantee.
It's still about streaming (and awards)
It's not as though this math is news to anyone working at Apple Studios. The math for this film was unfriendly for a studio like Paramount, but a major streaming service funded by one of the biggest tech companies in the world? We're talking about a different ballgame. Like most streaming services, the company isn't counting on the box office alone to pay for a film. In most cases, it's icing on the cake that can help pad the cost while also bringing more attention to the eventual streaming release. That's almost certainly what Apple is looking to do her.
A robust theatrical release will not only help bring more attention to Apple TV+ when the film makes its way there, but it will also undoubtedly help keep Scorsese in the conversation come awards season. Netflix bet big on Scorsese a few years ago with "The Irishman," but that similarly expensive (and long) drama had just enough of a theatrical release to qualify for the Oscars, and in the end, the film was shut out on Hollywood's biggest night. Apple already has a Best Picture winner with "CODA," and at the very least, it feels like they have another Best Picture nomination sewn up here.
It is almost impossible to put a number on it, all things considered, but if this movie can make over/under $200 million worldwide, secure some Oscars, and bolster Apple TV+ subscriptions, it's probable that Apple is going to call this a win. Moreover, it means they're probably going to be willing to take more risks like this in the future. That's a good thing.
If theatrical distribution becomes a bigger part of the equation for streamers, it benefits filmmakers, those who like the theatrical experience, and in the end, the streamers as well. Sure, the old ways of calculating "hit" or "flop" go out the window, but a little bit of nuance in these conversations can't hurt.
"Killers of the Flower Moon" is in theaters now.