Can Project Hail Mary Be A Rare Non Franchise Blockbuster At The Box Office?

The first legitimate blockbuster of 2026 may be just around the corner, and it's not part of a major franchise. The movie in question is "Project Hail Mary," which hails from Amazon MGM Studios. While it's based on author Andy Weir's book of the same name, for all intents and purposes, it's going to play like a big-budget, original sci-fi movie for general audiences. Those can be a tough sell, but this is looking like it could be a rare big-budget, non-franchise hit.

Hailing from directors Phil Lord and Chris Miller ("The LEGO Movie," "21 Jump Street"), the duo's latest is currently eyeing an opening between $45 and $65 million domestically when it arrives next weekend, per Box Office Theory. Those estimates may look conservative before long, though. Earlier tracking had it taking in closer to $50 million (via Deadline). The numbers keep going up. Some unofficial tracking services have it going even higher.

That would be very good news for Amazon, as the budget for "Project Hail Mary" comes in at just under $200 million. That puts it in superhero movie territory, meaning it needs to make superhero movie money. Sci-fi tends to travel well overseas, so an over/under $50 million start in North America would be solid. Anything above that would be great.

Ryan Gosling, known for his role as Ken in "Barbie" (which he originally turned down), leads the cast here. The film centers on Ryland Grace (Gosling), a science teacher who wakes up on a spaceship light years from home with no memory of how he got there. He soon realizes he must use all of his scientific knowledge to save Earth from extinction. Sandra Hüller ("The Zone of Interest"), Lionel Boyce ("The Bear"), Ken Leung ("Industry"), and Milana Vayntrub ("This Is Us") also star.

At a $200 million budget, we're talking about a movie that would need to make over/under $500 million worldwide for most studios to be satisfied. Amazon has very deep pockets, and it's ultimately trying to service Prime Video. It just needs this film to not flop outright. What does success look like? I'd argue anything over $350 million worldwide would be a qualified win for Amazon and a moral win for the industry.

Non-franchise hits in the $400 million range simply don't come around that often these days. Looking at 2025, the only movie in the top 10 not part of a pre-existing franchise was Apple's "F1" ($633 million worldwide). The only other Hollywood movie to get close was "The Housemaid" ($390 million worldwide). "The Housemaid" is getting a sequel (one that might not star Amanda Seyfried), so it, too, will become a franchise. In 2024, no Hollywood produced, non-franchise movies cleared $400 million globally.

So, yes, this Ryan Gosling led sci-fi flick is facing an uphill battle, but things are looking promising. Early reactions to "Project Hail Mary" have been uniformly positive, and effusively so at that. /Film's Ethan Anderton even declared it one of the best sci-fi movies ever in his review. If audiences agree, this film could have long legs beyond opening weekend, which will only help its cause.

"Project Hail Mary" will open against the horror sequel "Ready or Not 2: Here I Come," with "Forbidden Fruits" and "They Will Kill You" following on March 27. Luckily, they're all targeting different crowds. Heavy-hitters like "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" will follow thereafter in April, but that still gives this one a couple of weeks of breathing room.

"Project Hail Mary" hits theaters on March 20, 2026.