Predator: Badlands Set A Big Franchise Record - But Is It Too Early To Celebrate?

On its second weekend in theaters, it was a story of good news and bad news for "Predator: Badlands." The good news? It set a new high bar for the long-running sci-fi franchise (which we'll dive into in a moment). The bad news? The pricey blockbuster from Disney's 20th Century Studios fell hard after its bigger-than-expected $40 million opening weekend at the box office, leaving questions about the future. Let's take a look at the numbers, shall we?

Director Dan Trachtenberg's "Badlands" dropped a hefty 68% on weekend number two domestically, taking in $12.7 million. It was competing against "Now You See Me: Now You Don't," which took the top spot with $21 million, as well as "The Running Man," which disappointed with a $16.5 million opening. These movies all have a lot of audience crossover, which didn't help. Even with the drop, though, this movie now holds a pretty important distinction.

With $66 million domestically to date, "Badlands" stands alone as the highest-grossing solo entry at the domestic box office after two weekends. It's above "Predator" ($59.7 million), "Predator 2" ($30.6 million), "Predators" ($52 million), and "The Predator" ($51 million). It still trails the 2004 crossover "Alien vs. Predator" ($80.2 million domestic/$177.4 million worldwide), but it's the biggest entry that didn't need the aid of Xenomorphs. Yes, this movie does take place in the "Alien" universe, but it doesn't feature Xenomorphs in it. Moreover, it will pass the $80 million mark in the coming weeks, making that a moot point.

Trachtenberg's latest is set in the future on a distant planet, centering on a young Predator (Dimitrius Schuster-Koloamatangi) who is cast out from his clan. With an unlikely android ally (Elle Fanning), they embark on a dangerous journey in search of the ultimate adversary.

"Badlands" held slightly better overseas with a $16.1 million second weekend after a $40 million international opening. The movie carries a $105 million production budget, and with $136.2 million to its name thus far, it has a long way to go to reach profitability. 

Trachtenberg has worked wonders with the franchise, directing the much-acclaimed 2022 prequel "Prey" as well as co-directing this year's animated "Killer of Killers" for Hulu."Prey" going directly to Hulu was a mistake because it fed into the "wait to stream" mentality, setting an expectation for the audience. Disney wisely decided to put "Badlands" in theaters, but there are growing pains. If they want this to be a theatrical franchise, they have to invest in that.

At this stage, it doesn't look like "Badlands" will get to over/under $250 million globally to be able to consider it a total win theatrically. It's not going to get anywhere near last year's "Alien: Romulus" ($350 million worldwide), but it was probably never going to. "Alien" has always been bigger, and it's always been a theatrical series.

"Badlands" may, in the end, be viewed as a loss leader. The reviews are stellar, and it brings a lot of value to a franchise Disney is invested in. The downstream value on streaming, VOD, merchandising opportunities, interest in the back catalog, etc., may make it worth it. Certainly more so than dumping "Prey" on streaming. And certainly more than spending $200 million on "Tron: Ares," which is going to struggle to make it to $150 million worldwide.

All of this to say, "Badlands" is doing well, but the budget is kneecapping it a bit. When all's said and done, it may be about managing expectations.

"Predator: Badlands" is in theaters now.