Nobody Was A Modest Pandemic Box Office Hit, But Can The Sequel Succeed?

2021 was a very bizarre year for the movie business. The box office was on straight-up life support after the 2020 shutdowns brought on by the pandemic. But Hollywood did try to bring audiences back to theaters, with blockbusters like "Godzilla vs. Kong" welcoming people back in a meaningful way. Then there were smaller movies like Universal's action/comedy "Nobody," which became a decent little hit for the studio, particularly while grading on the pandemic curve. Now, four years later, Bob Odenkirk ("Better Call Saul") is back as Hutch in "Nobody 2." The question is, can the sequel succeed on its own terms in a radically different marketplace?

"Nobody 2" hits theaters next weekend and is currently looking at an opening in the $11 to $16 million range domestically, per Box Office Theory. While that's not exactly lighting the charts on fire, the original opened to a mere $6.8 million in North America before legging out to $27.5 million domestically and $57.5 million worldwide. Much of that had to do with a sheer lack of competition as so few movies were being released in theaters in the first half of 2021.

Even so, just shy of $60 million against a reported $16 million budget is a solid rate of return, so Universal rolled the bones on a sequel. This time around, the sequel is opening in the late summer window in an admittedly dry August. To that end, it's opening directly against two horror movies, "Jimmy and Stiggs" and "Witchboard." All due respect, but awareness for those is pretty low.

Direct competition won't be much of an issue. Plus, Marvel's "The Fantastic Four: First Steps" will likely be running out of steam by then, as will DC's "Superman." For the most part, the coast is clear. Even if Universal doubled the budget, an over/under $15 million U.S. opening for an over/under $30 million movie will get the job done.

The sequel picks up four years after the first film with Hutch (Odenkirk) working off his debt to the Russian mob. Hutch and his wife Becca (Connie Nielsen) are drifting apart again, so they decide to take the family to a waterpark for a quick getaway. A minor encounter with some town bullies in this small tourist town inadvertently pulls them into a world of crime.

The cast also includes RZA and Christopher Lloyd reprising their roles from the first film, with Colin Hanks ("Orange County") and Sharon Stone ("Casino") joining. This time around, Timo Tjahjanto ("The Night Comes for Us") is in the director's chair, taking over for Ilya Naishuller.

A bigger question is whether or not "Nobody 2" can achieve breakout sequel status not unlike "John Wick: Chapter 2," which made more than $170 million worldwide after the first film pulled in less than $90 million. The first "Nobody" seemingly did very well on VOD and streaming, so it's entirely possible that the audience for the follow-up is bigger. But will that audience feel the need to see it in a theater? Or do they plan to wait and stream?

The answer to that question has bigger consequences for the industry at large as the August slate is, as mentioned, somewhat weak. "Weapons" and "Freakier Friday" figure to deliver a solid double bill, but those aren't the kinds of movies that can carry us until September when "The Conjuring: Last Rites" opens. All due respect, but "The Toxic Avenger" doesn't have blockbuster written all over it. Nor do "Caught Stealing" and "Honey Don't!" Oddly enough, this action sequel may have the best chance at breaking out in a somewhat meaningful way to help lift the late summer box office, if all goes well. We'll see where the chips fall.

"Nobody 2" hits theaters on August 15, 2025.