Can The Fantastic Four Save Marvel's Very Rough 2025 Run At The Box Office?

It's absolutely no secret that Marvel Studios is having a tough year at the box office. The $1.3 billion success of "Deadpool & Wolverine" helped in 2024, but otherwise, the House of Ideas has been having a rough go of it lately, as 2023 was difficult sledding as well. Now, in 2025, both "Captain America: Brave New World" and "Thunderbolts*" have already fallen short of expectations. The question is, will "The Fantastic Four: First Steps" prove to be the hero the Marvel Cinematic Universe needs at this moment? The early numbers suggest that may well be the case.

Marvel Studios' much-anticipated "Fantastic Four" reboot is currently expected to pull in between $125 and $155 million on its opening weekend domestically, per Box Office Theory. As far as recent MCU entries go, even on the low end, that would be above "Brave New World" ($88.8 million), "Thunderbolts*" ($74.3 million), "The Marvels" ($46.1 million), and "Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania" ($106.1 million). "Quantumania," as you may recall, also collapsed after its opening and finished with just $476 million worldwide. I only say that to point out that a big opening weekend is only part of the equation here. Legs are key.

That being the case, reviews for "First Steps" could be a crucial factor here. "Superman" was tracking in a similar range and opened to $125 million domestically, plus a $220 million global debut. That number was aided by very strong reviews, but the bigger thing is that it's now expected to draw in audiences for weeks to come. Marvel absolutely needs that to happen here. It can't afford a middling response, which served to kneecap both "Brave New World" and "Quantumania." Rather, the studio needs audiences on board in a big, bad way. Gone are the days when these types of superhero movies could seemingly coast to $800 million worldwide without breaking a sweat.

In terms of more direct comparisons, this opening would put "First Steps" somewhere between the likes of "Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3" ($118.4 million opening/$845.5 million worldwide) and "Thor: Love and Thunder" ($144.1 million opening/$760.9 million worldwide). Often with the MCU, particularly with the sci-fi heavy stuff, international ticket sales are a huge part of the equation. If that holds true for "First Steps," then the current opening weekend projections are promising.

"The Fantastic Four: First Steps" is directed by Matt Shakman of "WandaVision" fame and takes place against the backdrop of a 1960s-inspired, retro-futuristic world. Its story, of course, centers on Marvel's so-called first family — Reed Richards/Mister Fantastic (Pedro Pascal), Sue Storm/Invisible Woman (Vanessa Kirby), Johnny Storm/Human Torch (Joseph Quinn), and Ben Grimm/The Thing (Ebon Moss-Bachrach) — as they face their most daunting challenge yet ... namely, the planet-eating villain Galactus (Ralph Ineson).

For Marvel Studios, there's no question the pressure is on this movie to deliver. One of the key talking points when Disney purchased Fox in 2019 for $71.3 billion was that Marvel would get the "X-Men" and "Fantastic Four" rights. While 2015's "Fantastic Four" was a disaster, making just $167.8 million worldwide against a $120 million budget, the belief was that, in Marvel Studios' hands, it could be a massive property.

Now though, the MCU has hit a bit of a low point, with only the biggest slam dunks breaking through in meaningful ways. "Brave New World" grossed just $415 million worldwide, with "Thunderbolts*" tapping out at $382 million. Both carried $180 million budgets. That math doesn't check out for Disney, particularly because the MCU was once the studio's cash cow. Yet, it's now suffered major misfires such as "The Marvels" ($199.7 million worldwide), the lowest-grossing MCU movie to date, and, to a lesser degree, a title like "Eternals."

The hope is that the name recognition of "Fantastic Four," along with an impressive cast and (hopefully) strong reviews, will help set this film up for success where other recent MCU entries have failed. The bigger hope is that the budget is closer to $180 million than $250 million, but if international audiences turn out and if it can hold strong throughout August, Marvel can end 2025 on a high note.

"The Fantastic Four: First Steps" hits theaters on July 27, 2025.