Ballerina Aims To Build A Box Office Juggernaut On John Wick's Good Name – But Will It Work?

More than a decade since its inception, "John Wick" might be the most unlikely $1 billion franchise of the modern era. The first film damn near went to VOD before it secured a theatrical release, becoming a modest hit. The series then exploded in popularity when "John Wick: Chapter 2" came out. The rest is action movie history. Now, Lionsgate is hoping to keep this money train moving in the right direction with a new spin-off in the form of "Ballerina," aka "From the World of John Wick: Ballerina." The question is, can this spin-off parlay Mr. Wick's good name into meaningful success at the box office?

As it stands, director Len Wiseman's "Ballerina" is looking at a domestic debut in the $33 to $39 million range when it arrives next weekend, per Box Office Theory. That is pretty much right in line with earlier tracking numbers, which had the spin-off pulling in between $35 and $40 million (via Deadline). Mind you, the "John Wick" movies have performed very well overseas so international ticket sales are going to be a major factor here. On paper, this is a solid start, but this is going to be one of those "marathon not a sprint" situations.

An opening in this range would put Lionsgate's latest above "John Wick: Chapter 2" ($30.4 million opening/$174.3 million worldwide) and below "Chapter 3" ($56.8 million opening/$328.3 million worldwide). The problem is that "Ballerina" cost quite a bit more than both of those movies, with the budget said to be in the $90 million range. That means it needs to make closer to "Chapter 3" money globally to justify its existence.

The film centers on Eve Macarro (Ana de Armas) — a ballerina-turned-assassin trained in the traditions of the Ruska Roma — as she seeks revenge for her father's death. The cast also includes Anjelica Huston, Gabriel Byrne, Lance Reddick, Catalina Sandino Moreno, Norman Reedus, and Ian McShane. Rather crucially, Keanu Reeves reprises his role as John Wick, which has been leaned on very heavily in the trailers for the film.

Originally, Lionsgate didn't plan on this being such an expensive endeavor, but things didn't go according to plan. "Ballerina" underwent very pricey and extensive reshoots under the direction of Chad Stahelski, who directed all four "John Wick" movies. So while Wiseman, known best for his work on the "Underworld" franchise, is the credited director, it's a mix of his work and Stahelski's on screen.

That may ultimately prove to be a wise investment on Lionsgate's part, as the first reactions to "Ballerina" have been largely positive. That said, there was some controversy regarding Lionsgate's handling of the social media embargo, with "critical" reactions being given a later embargo date than "spoiler-free enthusiasm." If the studio has managed to put together a true crowd-pleaser, this movie can still hit the numbers it needs to hit, but it will need to hang around beyond opening weekend to do so.

That might be tricky, as "Ballerina" is arriving in the midst of a jam-packed summer season. The live-action "How to Train Your Dragon" opens the following weekend, with "28 Years Later" and Pixar's "Elio" on deck June 20. After that, we get "F1" and "M3GAN 2.0," with the juggernaut that is "Jurassic World Rebirth" kicking off July. All of these movies are going to be fighting for oxygen. 

Meanwhile, Lionsgate has plans for "John Wick 5" and several other spin-offs as they look to build out the John Wick cinematic universe. They really need this one to work, because if they can get a movie in this universe to work without Reeves in the lead role, they might really have something. If not? Their options might be far more limited in the future.

"Ballerina" hits theaters on June 6, 2025.