It's Lilo & Stitch Vs. Tom Cruise At The Box Office, But Can Mission: Impossible Beat Disney?

The summer movie season has gotten off to a relatively slow start, with Marvel's "Thunderbolts*" doing okay-but-not-great business (especially by Marvel standards). Things are going to pick up with the release of "Final Destination Bloodlines," but the true coming out party for the year's biggest moviegoing season is just around the corner. Disney's live-action "Lilo & Stitch" and Paramount's "Mission: Impossible — The Final Reckoning" are both hitting theaters over Memorial Day weekend, offering up the year's biggest box office showdown. The question is, who comes out on top?

Domestically, it's going to be no contest. "Lilo & Stitch" is currently expected to bring in between $105 and $124 million across the weekend, which doesn't even count the Monday holiday, per Box Office Theory. Meanwhile, Tom Cruise's allegedly final "Mission: Impossible" is eyeing an opening between $59 and $67 million. That's right in line with earlier estimates, which had "Lilo & Stitch" doing over/under $120 million and "Mission" doing $80 million over the full four-day holiday (via Deadline).

Regardless of which movie takes the number one spot, theaters are winning here. This is on track to possibly be the biggest Memorial Day weekend ever at the box office, overtaking 2013, when "Fast & Furious 6" and "The Hangover 3" helped drive the U.S. box office to $314 million. With Ryan Coogler's smash hit "Sinners," "Thunderbolts*," and "Minecraft" also still going strong, it's easy to see why this could be a record-setting weekend.

As for the new releases, they both bring something unique to the table. Director Dean Fleischer Camp's "Lilo & Stitch" is a remake of the 2002 animated Disney favorite of the same name. Meanwhile, "Final Reckoning" is promising to bring this long-running action series to a close. A family-friendly title and an action-packed blockbuster make for a perfect bit of counterprogramming.

This could be the next Barbenheimer. "Barbie" and "Oppenheimer" had similar, diverse appeal. It could be the next Glicked, mirroring when "Gladiator II" and "Wicked" faced off last year. The point is, this is the perfect double bill that could fill theaters all around the world. The global marketplace is key here, particularly for "Mission."

In North America, Disney has the unquestioned edge. But the "Mission: Impossible" franchise has made more than $4 billion globally to date, with much of that coming from outside of the United States. 2018's "Fallout," the biggest movie in the series, earned $791 million worldwide, with $571 million — or 72% of that money — coming from international ticket sales. So, while "Lilo & Stitch" will win the day domestically, Tom Cruise's Ethan Hunt could take the cake overseas.

Either way, this is great news for the theatrical industry, which has suffered setback after setback since the pandemic in 2020. As for each movie's longer-term prospects, "Lilo & Stitch" figures to be a winner, as its budget is said to be $100 million. That's far more reasonable than "Snow White," which flopped badly earlier this year. This figures to serve as a reminder as to why Disney continues to stay in the live-action remake business. More often than not, these movies make lots and lots of money. The hits far outweigh the misses, and wisely targeting early 2000s nostalgia could push this one above industry estimates.

"The Final Reckoning," which once again reunites Cruise with director Chistopher McQuarrie, has a steeper hill to climb. While no figure has been nailed down, the budget for this entry is rumored to have ballooned to anywhere between $300 and $400 million. Meanwhile, 2023's "Dead Reckoning" topped out at $565 million globally. This movie needs to make much, much more than that to profit in theaters. But Paramount seems to believe it's worth it in the aggregate. What can be said with confidence is that theater owners are going to be more than happy to watch this showdown unfold.

"Lilo & Stitch" and "Mission: Impossible — The Final Reckoning" both hit theaters on May 23, 2025.