The Exorcist: Believer Passes $100 Million At The Box Office – What Comes Next Is Complicated
Taylor Swift has been garnering the lion's share of attention at the box office over the last couple of weeks, with her blockbuster "Eras Tour" concert film topping the charts for two weekends in a row. Meanwhile, Martin Scorsese's latest, "Killers of the Flower Moon," had a massive global rollout this past weekend, resulting in a $44 million debut for the master filmmaker. But "The Exorcist: Believer" has been — somewhat quietly — chugging right along and has now passed a pretty major milestone. Director David Gordon Green's revival of the legendary horror franchise has passed the $100 million mark worldwide. That's good, even if the overall picture is still a bit murky. We'll get to that.
First, let's look at the smaller picture, focusing specifically on this movie and what it's managed to do thus far. "Believer" has earned $107.6 million worldwide through three weekends, per The Numbers, including $5.7 million in its most recent frame. Despite less-than-stellar reviews (read our review here), Green's latest has held pretty well week-to-week as the Halloween season rolls right along. It dropped just 48% this past weekend, which is damn good for a horror movie, specifically one that has been met with a mixed response.
Universal Pictures is distributing the film, which was produced by horror aficionados Blumhouse Productions. It carries a $30 million production budget and, even when accounting for marketing, it's set to become a hit theatrically. It's also getting ready to hit VOD, which will open it up to a wider audience and provide Universal with even more revenue before its eventual Peacock streaming debut. That's where we need to start looking at the bigger picture to understand the "Yes, but..." of it all.
$400 million still hangs in the balance
If this movie existed on an island, even with the critical response, it would be another win for Blumhouse and Green, who directed the recent blockbuster "Halloween" trilogy for the studio. Unfortunately, largely based on the success of that trilogy, Universal decided to go all-in on "The Exorcist." The studio cut a massive $400 million deal with Morgan Creek for the rights to the franchise. The plan is to make a trilogy, with "The Exorcist: Deceiver" already set to arrive in theaters in April 2025.
Thankfully, that $400 million figure includes the budgets for the films. And yes, Universal undoubtedly made that deal assuming that these movies would bring value to the studio beyond the box office, particularly Peacock, which could use all of the help it can get in the streaming wars. Be that as it may, things aren't looking good in terms of overall value in the early going here. Whereas 2018's "Halloween" was met with a positive response from critics and audiences alike, setting up the two sequels that followed, this first installment set up a situation where the already planned follow-ups will be fighting against the tide.
"Exorcist: Believer" carries a pretty brutal C CinemaScore, which strongly suggests that general audiences are not heading out into the world providing some of that much-needed "must-see" buzz that Universal was probably depending on. Yes, a critical failure can make some money in its initial run but, more often than not, those movies don't have as long of a shelf life. "The Exorcist" has gained a heck of a lot more value in its post-theatrical life than "The Exorcist II: The Heretic," for example. This is more of an "Exorcist II" situation. That's not what Universal cut that big-ass check for.
On the hook for a trilogy, no matter what
Unfortunately, it seems like Universal can't really walk things back either. Reports have indicated that the studio is on the hook for a full "Exorcist" trilogy no matter what. That appears to have been part of Morgan Creek's condition for the deal. Obviously, the goal is always to make a movie that is received positively by the moviegoing public but, from a business perspective, it would have been better if the second installment in this trilogy had been less of a hit with critics, not the first (like what happened with Green's "Halloween" trilogy).
The problem now is that the sequels are going to have to earn back the trust of audiences who may not have even bothered to see the first film, or ended up disliking it. That's not easy to do. That's why the financial success that "Believer" has achieved comes with a major caveat. There is more at stake here.
Originally, it seemed like Green was going to stay on board to at least direct "Deceiver." As one might expect, that is no longer as certain as it once was. The Hollywood Reporter recently revealed that there will be "some degree of creative rethink for the next two films" given the response to "Believer," and that Green's participation is somewhat in doubt. For what it's worth, there is already a completed script for "Deceiver" but, depending on how much the studio believes a change of direction is needed, that script could still be reworked or even abandoned altogether.
"The Exorcist: Believer" is in theaters now.