2023's Box Office Makes It Clear That Audiences Want More Than Just Sequels And Reboots
Even people who hardly ever pay attention to box office happenings probably made note of the fact that both "Barbie" and "Oppenheimer" made big waves this past weekend. Director Greta Gerwig's adaptation of Mattel's beloved doll and Christopher Nolan's R-rated biopic about J. Robert Oppenheimer debuted on the same day and the "Barbenheimer" phenomenon led to the biggest weekend of moviegoing since "Avengers: Endgame" debuted in 2019. Though perhaps not the intention of either Warner Bros. or Universal, what these movies managed to do said an awful lot about the state of theatrical exhibition. Put simply, moviegoers want more than just sequels and reboots of already-established IP.
"Barbie" is going to cross $400 million worldwide any day now, and "Oppenheimer" may well become Nolan's sixth movie to make at least $500 million at the box office. Yet what we're dealing with is a remarkably weird adaptation of a children's toy that is rated PG-13 and decidedly not aimed directly at children on one side, with a three-hour biopic with very little action on the other. These are not the sorts of movies that Hollywood has been betting on in recent years in the hopes of finding a big-budget hit. Yet, both movies found bigger audiences than anyone expected despite competing directly against one another. That's no small thing.
We're not dealing with "original" movies here as they're both adapting something, but they're certainly far removed from something like "The Flash," which was kind of a sequel to "Justice League" in some way and was trying to set up lots of future projects that will never come to pass. Nor are they anything like "Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny," a very costly miscalculation by Disney and Lucasfilm that is poised to lose a ridiculous amount of money.
IP for the sake of IP won't cut it anymore
On paper, "Indiana Jones 5" feels like a safe bet, particularly when considering that "Kingdom of the Crystal Skull" was an absolutely monster hit — $790.6 million worldwide to be exact — that just about everyone seems to hate. But 15 years removed and audience tastes have begun to change. It certainly didn't help that Disney spent $300 million on the movie, but that's another problem entirely. Inflated budgets notwithstanding, what we're seeing is a desire for fresh ideas, even if they are based on familiar things.
Take "The Super Mario Bros. Movie" for example, which has made $1.34 billion at the global box office and remains far and away the highest-grossing movie of 2023 thus far. It seems unlikely that anything will overtake it at this point, leaving Universal and Illumination with a resounding success story that has the potential to birth an entire cinematic universe. Whether or not Nintendo wants to take it that far is another question, but it's on the table. This happened because we got a new take on a familiar piece of IP, aimed at the right audience (families, in this case), made with a responsible budget of $100 million. We hadn't had a "Mario" movie in 30 years following the 1993 live-action disaster, and audiences were clearly ready.
Again, we're still dealing with popular IP but it felt fresh because it wasn't a familiar franchise in the animated space, and the medium very much suited the material. Audiences are very happy to still go to the movies, they just need the right reason to do so. On the contrary, "Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania" was only right for hardcore Marvel fans. General moviegoers didn't care nearly as much, and that's why the movie fell off a cliff after its opening weekend and never really recovered. The same old, same old simply isn't working anymore.
Reboots and sequels are still wildly important
Hollywood should absolutely be looking at the fact that "Barbie" is going to outgross "Transformers: Rise of the Beasts" ($427.1 million worldwide) in a matter of days. They should also look at the fact that "Elemental" has held like gangbusters week-to-week following a seemingly disastrous opening weekend. An original, animated movie from Pixar came back from the dead because audiences caught on. That's not to be ignored. Let us also not forget "Shazam! Fury of the Gods," which quickly became one of the biggest bombs in superhero movie history. Superheros aren't bankable simply because they exist anymore.
At the same time, we need to acknowledge that sequels and reboots absolutely still work much of the time. "Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3" made $844 million and is number two for the year. "Fast X" is the third biggest movie of the year with $705 million worldwide to its name. Yes, its budget is also way too high, but the audience is there. "Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse" will end up making at least $300 million more than its predecessor. "John Wick: Chapter 4" and "Creed III" are the biggest earners in those franchises now. "Scream VI" made more than "Scream" (2022) did. "Evil Dead Rise" made more than "Evil Dead" (2013). "Insidious: The Red Door" dethroned "Indiana Jones" on its opening weekend.
So yes, audiences are still happy to turn up for sequels. But the majority of those movies were A) received pretty well by critics and B) were made for reasonable sums of money, with "Fast X" being the big exception. The problem this year seemed to be an over-reliance on IP that has worked before. What we've learned is that IP for the sake of IP just won't cut it. Audiences are more than happy to turn up for the right thing. Studios just need to adjust their strategies and try to give it to them.