Indiana Jones 5 Could Be Disney's Biggest Box Office Disaster Since John Carter
Disney is having a mixed bag of a year so far at the box office. Yes, they've had hits like "Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3," which is the second-biggest movie of the year behind only "The Super Mario Bros. Movie." That's the good news. The bad news is they've also suffered one of the biggest misfires of 2023 with "Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny." While Harrison Ford's fifth and final turn as the legendary cinematic adventurer has been in theaters for less than three weeks, things are looking grim. So much so that this may end up being one of Disney's biggest live-action flops ever, set to possibly rival that of "John Carter." It's that bad.
As of this writing, director James Mangold's "Dial of Destiny" has earned $306 million worldwide, including $149.3 million from domestic audiences, per The Numbers. It all started with a not-so-great $60.3 million opening weekend earlier this month. It's pretty close to a 50/50 split between North American and overseas audiences. That's key when comparing it to something like "Mission: Impossible — Dead Reckoning Part One," which has a similarly high budget (more on that in a moment) and debuted to similar numbers domestically. However, the "Mission" series has always played better overseas, taking in 70% or more of its total box office from international markets. That's not the case with "Indiana Jones."
With the much-anticipated showdown between "Barbie" and "Oppenheimer" upon us, competition is about to become far more fierce, which should kick Indy out of the top five on the charts by tomorrow. From there, it's going to be a downhill slide to disasterville, all thanks to an over-inflated $300 million production budget (before marketing).
Indiana Jones and the financial disaster
As I've discussed quite a bit, Disney and Lucasfilm ended up spending far too much on "Dial of Destiny," in no small part thanks to the pandemic. But still, $300 million is almost too big a number to manage, as you would be looking at needing to make somewhere close to $800 million — if not more — just to break even. 15 years ago, "Kingdom of the Crystal Skull" pulled in $790 million worldwide. But that was 15 years ago and, not for nothing, that movie left a bad taste in a lot of moviegoers' mouths. It was always going to be a herculean task to try and match that number, let alone surpass it to get into profits.
Now, circling back to "John Carter." The 2012 sci-fi film is oft-cited as one of the biggest box office flops in history, with the film making just $282.7 million worldwide against a gigantic $263.7 million production budget. Disney, as a result, ended up losing $200 million and it killed a potential franchise in violent fashion. The only other live-action Disney movie that is in the same financial disaster ballpark is "The Lone Ranger," which lost around $190 million. Either way, it's terrible company to be in.
The fact that the latest "Indiana Jones" movie had an even larger budget is concerning and, as of right now, the film is not expected to pass $400 million worldwide. Theaters keep about half of that money. So, take Disney's $300 million budget, plus at least $100 million for marketing, and you can see where this could easily wind up in the same ballpark as "John Carter." Hopefully, it will help Disney and other studios figure out this budget crisis because this is wholly unsustainable.
"Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny" is currently playing in theaters.