The Global Box Office May Never Fully Recover From The Pandemic

It's no secret that the way we watch movies has changed dramatically in recent years. The COVID-19 pandemic forced theaters to close for months on end in 2020, fundamentally reshaping Hollywood with the industry doubling down on streaming. While studios have largely realized that they still need movie theaters and revenue from the box office, it's been a very slow climb to return to a semblance of normalcy in that department. Unfortunately, a new report offers a sobering reality. In short, we may never return to pre-pandemic standards when it comes to ticket sales.

PwC's annual media and entertainment outlook report was released recently, and, per The Hollywood Reporter, the prospects for the box office are not great. The firm expects the industry to finish with $9.6 billion domestically in 2025, up from $8.9 billion in 2024. Those levels will rise to $10.1 billion in 2026, $10.3 billion in 2027, $10.6 billion in 2028, and $10.8 billion in 2029. This sounds like a lot of money, but those numbers won't touch pre-pandemic highs — not even close.

The previous domestic box office record was set in 2018, when ticket sales topped $11.8 billion. On the plus side, PwC estimates that we may finally reach pre-pandemic levels again in 2030. The problem? By then, it will be because ticket prices are increasing, with a bigger focus on premium formats like IMAX. Overall, attendance will still be down. Bart Spiegel, PwC global entertainment and media leader, had this to say about it:

"Unfortunately, this full recovery is unlikely within the forecast period. However, we project that by the end of 2029, the industry will be on the brink of a full rebound. In other words, 2030 may be the year global box office revenues return to pre-pandemic levels."

What does that amount to? There were 777 million admissions in 2023 and 734 million in 2024, a year impacted greatly by the WGA and SAG strikes. 2025 is projected to see 778 million, growing to 823 million by 2029. But that pales in comparison to the 1.3 billion tickets sold in 2019. That's roughly a 37% drop in overall attendance.

"It's important to remember that industry revenues are ultimately driven by price times volume. In this case, while ticket prices are rising, admissions (volume) are not expected to return to pre-pandemic levels," Spiegel added. "Instead, the growth in global box office revenue is being fueled by higher ticket prices. These ticket price increases are driven by several factors, including enhanced infrastructure and facilities, technological advancements, and rising content costs."

Globally, the outlook isn't any better. The global box office is expected to hit $33.5 billion this year, compared to just shy of $30 billion last year, topping out at $37.7 billion in 2029. That's still shy of 2019, which hit a staggering $39.4 billion. Even more sobering? Netflix's total revenue was $37.5 billion in 2024 alone, illustrating the gap between streaming and the box office that now exists.

This all amounts to huge problems that the industry at large must reckon with. Theaters have to make up revenue, which results in higher ticket prices and showing more ads before movies. Though AMC is now trying to reverse course on that due to negative response from patrons. Sony Pictures chairman Tom Rothman has argued for lower ticket prices to increase volume, but that doesn't seem to be catching on.

Studios, meanwhile, have to figure out how to make movies make sense despite bigger budgets and decreased returns. Movies like "Jurassic World Rebirth" can still be hits, pulling in $828 million, but that's well below the previous entries in the "Jurassic World" franchise. For now, there are no crystal clear answers, but Spiegel did offer some hope in the report.

"U.S. industry history reveals that the sector has experienced challenges many times before, with everything from the conversion to sound to the anti-trust legislation of the 1940s, the arrival of TV as a mass medium in the 1940s and 1950s, and the VHS revolution of the 1970s. In each case, the sector recovered. It is doing so again now."

One can only hope history repeats itself and the industry manages to recover on a long enough timeline.