28 Years Later Is An Outrageously Risky Box Office Bet - Will It Pay Off?

It hasn't quite been 28 years since director Danny Boyle's beloved zombie movie "28 Days Later" first hit theaters in 2002, but it has been long enough for him to team up with writer Alex Garland for the long-awaited "28 Years Later" anyhow. It's easily one of the most-anticipated horror movies of the summer — if not 2025 overall. It's also a tremendous risk for Sony Pictures, with the studio putting up a sizable budget for not only this movie, but a possible trilogy. The question is, will this risky bet pay off?

"28 Years Later" is currently set to pull in between $42 and $50 million domestically when it opens next weekend, per Box Office Theory. That would be a stellar start, to put it mildly. As Deadline points out, the film is experiencing record pre-sales for the horror genre, currently outpacing "Final Destination Bloodlines," which opened to a bigger-than-expected $51 million earlier this year. That film has made nearly $260 million globally, as of this writing. If the sequel can do similar numbers overseas, it will be in very good shape. 

That certainly bodes well as the third entry in Boyle and Garland's zombie franchise carries a budget said to be in the $75 million range, which is remarkably expensive for a horror movie. Part of the reason horror is generally attractive to studios is that it can be produced on the cheap. It's a low-risk/high-reward proposition much of the time.

Further complicating matters is the fact that Nia DaCosta ("Candyman") already filmed a sequel, "28 Years Later: The Bone Temple," which is believed to have a similar budget. So, Sony is at least on the hook for two of these, no matter what happens with the first one. That's a sizable investment considering that "28 Days Later" made just shy of $83 million worldwide against an $8 million budget in its day. Needless to say, this entry needs to make a whole lot more to justify its existence.

The film centers on a group of survivors who live on a small island nearly three decades after the zombie apocalypse first started, who are connected to the mainland by a single causeway. When one of the group leaves the island on a mission, he discovers all-new secrets and horrors. The stacked cast includes Aaron Taylor-Johnson ("The Fall Guy"), Ralph Fiennes ("The Menu"), and Jodie Comer ("Killing Eve"). Cillian Murphy, who headlined "28 Weeks Later," is expected to return in "The Bone Temple."

Zombie movies have been a staple of horror cinema for decades, but they rarely achieve box office success on a level that can justify a budget this big. "World War Z" skirted disaster to become a $540 million box office hit against a hulking $190 million budget. Fortunately, Boyle and Garland didn't overspend to that degree, but the point is zombie movies becoming out-and-out summer blockbusters is an exception and certainly not the rule.

Working in Sony's favor is the fact that 2007's "28 Weeks Later" has recently been trending on Hulu's most-watched charts. It's evident that people are getting caught up on the previous installments before the new entry arrives. If critics are on this movie's side, Sony's big gamble could look very wise in the not-too-distant future.

The question that will be answered come opening weekend is: Will "28 Days Later" prove these movies have become generational favorites like the "Final Destination" films, paving the way for an outsized hit? Or is this more like "Blade Runner 2049," which greatly overestimated the value of the franchise in question? As of right now, the numbers support the former answer, which is good news for all involved.

"28 Years Later" hits theaters on June 20, 2025.