Can Cobra Kai Fans Make Karate Kid: Legends A Box Office Hit?

This summer movie season has a lot to offer viewers. From Disney's live-action "Lilo & Stitch" to Brad Pitt's "F1," there really seems to be a little something for everyone this year. Sony is offering up a fresh take on a very familiar franchise in the form of "Karate Kid: Legends." The pitch here is that every era of "Karate Kid" will come together in one movie, uniting around a new fighter. The question is, can this movie thrive in the aftermath of "Cobra Kai" on Netflix? Or have audiences had their fill at home?

Director Jonathan Entwistle's "Karate Kid: Legends" is currently eyeing a domestic debut in the $31 to $40 million range when it opens next weekend, per Box Office Theory. That wouldn't be a bad start for Sony's PG-13, audience-friendly big screen continuation of the '80s favorite. The biggest problem is that this summer is overflowing with stiff competition. "Lilo & Stitch" and "Mission: Impossible — The Final Reckoning" will be entering their second weekends after presumably lighting the charts on fire over Memorial Day. But that's just the tip of the iceberg.

"Legends" will be opening directly against A24's horror movie "Bring Her Back." The following weekend, the "John Wick" spin-off "Ballerina" arrives alongside IFC's "Dangerous Animals" and NEON's "The Life of Chuck." After that, it's onto the live-action "How to Train Your Dragon," which figures to be aiming for the family crowd.

2010's "Karate Kid" opened to $55 million on its way to $359 million worldwide against a very reasonable $40 million production budget. The hope is that Sony kept the budget in the same range for this latest entry, offering a similar path to success. For context, that movie made about half of its global haul overseas.

As the trailers for "Karate Kid: Legends" have promised, the new film will bring back Ralph Macchio as Daniel LaRusso alongside Jackie Chan's Mr. Han from the 2010 reboot/remake to train a new prodigy, played by Ben Wang. The film centers on Li Fong (Wang), who moves to New York City to attend a prestigious school. He soon attracts unwanted attention from a local karate champion and becomes motivated to defend himself. Li endeavors to enter a karate competition with the help of his kung fu teacher Mr. Han (Chan) and the legendary Daniel LaRusso (Macchio).

The elephant in the room this time around is "Cobra Kai." The show was a massive hit for Netflix and invited a new generation of fans into the "Karate Kid" universe. But save for Macchio's participation, this new movie isn't explicitly tied to that show. William Zabka's Johnny Lawrence isn't involved, for example. So, will fans of the show turn up? That's the big question, and that could be the make-or-break element.

We've already seen movies like "Final Destination Bloodlines" over-perform at the box office this summer in no small part because the audience was underestimated. Is it possible that the "Cobra Kai" fanbase is going to turn out in larger than expected numbers? Maybe. If so, that could mean these tracking numbers are on the low side. But if fans of the show don't feel compelled or that "we have Karate Kid at home" line of thinking kicks in? Sony may have drastically miscalculated the demand for this movie.

At the end of the day, as long as Sony kept the budget under $70 million or so, this movie will be relatively safe in the long run, if these opening numbers hold. Whether or not it becomes an out-and-out hit? That's going to rely on good word of mouth and "Cobra Kai" fans rallying around it. We'll see how it all shakes out.

"Karate Kid: Legends" hits theaters on May 30, 2025.