Thunderbolts* Topped The Box Office, But Its 'Hit Or Flop' Status Is To Be Determined

It was a bit of good news, bad news for Marvel Studios over the weekend as the company's latest offering, director Jake Schreier's "Thunderbolts*," topped the box office to help kick off the summer movie season. That's the good news. The bad news? It wasn't a big enough opening to confidently suggest whether or not the Marvel Cinematic Universe has another hit on its hands. Rather, this one's fate is going to be determined in the weeks to come.

Marvel's latest team-up debuted with an estimated $76 million domestically. That was pretty much right in line with pre-release estimates, which had "Thunderbolts*" pulling in over/under $70 million. Internationally, the movie took in $86.1 million for a $162.1 million global debut. That would be stellar for most movies, but it's still on the lower side of things for the MCU.

Only eight of the 36 theatrically released MCU movies have had lower opening weekends dating back to 2008's "Iron Man," which kicked off the franchise as we know it. The vast majority of those lower openings have come in 2020 and beyond. That represents both the MCU in the aftermath of "Avengers: Endgame" and Marvel Studios at large reckoning with the realities of an industry reshaped by the pandemic and streaming.

The good news is that Schreier's take on these Marvel anti-heroes was produced for $180 million. While that's still a gigantic sum, it's less than the $200 million or more we've become accustomed to. That will, in turn, make it easier for this one to make a profit in theaters. What's it going to take for the movie to get there? Somewhere in the neighborhood of $550 and $600 million worldwide, depending on the marketing spend.

Whether or not "Thunderbolts*" gets there is going to come down to word of mouth from moviegoers in the coming weeks. Yes, it opened lower than Marvel's "Captain America: Brave New World" ($88.8 million opening/$415 million worldwide), but that movie had the benefit of having "Captain America" in the title, connecting it to a known franchise. The other issue is that "Brave New World" was met with, at best, mixed reviews.

"Thunderbolts*," meanwhile, has been met with very solid reviews from critics and audiences alike thus far. That should help carry it further in the coming weeks, even as big movies like "Final Destination: Bloodlines" and "Lilo & Stitch" hit theaters. As we've seen time and time again in recent years, it's buzz from audiences that will carry a movie beyond opening weekend. Just look at what's going on with Ryan Coogler's "Sinners" as further evidence of that. As such, this one already has a leg up on "Brave New World" in that department.

Right now, the movie's overall prospects will be situated somewhere between "Eternals" ($71.2 million opening/$402 million worldwide) and "Ant-Man and the Wasp" ($75.8 million opening/$623.1 million worldwide). "Eternals" was a big swing and a miss, critically speaking, which killed the movie beyond opening weekend. "Ant-Man and the Wasp," on the other hand, was the introduction of a new team, much like "Thunderbolts," and managed to leg out pretty well after a relatively modest opening weekend (at least by Marvel standards).

If this movie can mirror that trajectory, it would be a huge win for Marvel Studios and Disney as they try to round out the uneven Multiverse Saga on some high notes. Looking ahead, they've got "The Fantastic Four: First Steps" arriving in July, with "Avengers: Doomsday" and "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" on deck for 2026. After that, the Multiverse Saga will come to a proper close with "Avengers: Secret Wars" in 2027. Some positive momentum could do wonders for all these movies. We'll see how it shakes out.

"Thunderbolts*" is in theaters now.