2023's Domestic Box Office Topped $9 Billion – Here's What That Means For 2024
2024 is just getting underway, and though there is much reason to be pessimistic, the year's fate so far as the box office is concerned remains in question. More on that in a moment. We do, however, have some good news entering the year: 2023's domestic box office finished above $9 billion for the first time since 2019. Comscore (via The Hollywood Reporter) recently revealed that ticket sales for last year are expected to come in between $9.03 and $9.05 billion when all receipts are tallied.
This is especially good news because, for a few weeks there, it seemed like that $9 billion benchmark was going to be out of reach largely thanks to a rough November that saw expected hits like "The Marvels" and "Wish" fall well shy of expectations. But a slew of releases in December, led by Warner Bros.' surprise hit musical prequel "Wonka," managed to get the job done. Even without a breakout hit like "Spider-Man: No Way Home" or "Avatar: The Way of Water," the final weekend of 2023 finished ahead of 2022. A slew of releases such as "The Color Purple" and "Migration" helped carry the load. Comscore's Paul Dergarabedian had this to say about it:
"Another box office target was set and hit in 2023 as the domestic year surpassed the $9 billion threshold, owing much to a notable Barbenheimer-powered $4 billion summer movie season and a unique year in which alternative content, specialized film and international cinema made their mark in an unprecedented show of strength adding to the bottom line."
Indeed, 2023's success is very much owed to a strong summer led by "Barbie" ($636 million domestic) and "Oppenheimer," ($326 million domestic) as well as "The Super Mario Bros. Movie." ($575 million domestic). But, as Dergarabedian explained, last year's success goes well beyond IP-driven blockbusters.
2024 needs some of that unexpected 2023 magic
As I've talked about a lot over the last handful of months, specialty programming such as "Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour" and movies serving under-served audiences, such as faith-based films, did a lot of heavy lifting last year. "The Eras Tour" became a monster hit that came out of nowhere to save the fall movie season, taking in $179 million domestically and $250 million worldwide. Similarly, the ever-controversial "Sound of Freedom" made $184 million domestically (putting it in the top ten for the year), becoming the unexpected hit of the summer — if not 2023 overall.
That's just the tip of the iceberg. We also had Japanese movies like "Godzilla Minus One" and "The Boy and the Heron" break out in meaningful ways towards the end of the year, not to mention Indian imports like "Pathaan." The point is, even as superhero movies failed left and right last year, unique programming helped to fill the void. As a result, the overall domestic box office was up more than 20% compared to 2022 when ticket sales topped out at $7.5 billion. Yes, we still have a long way to go before we get back to a place where annual sales top $10 billion annually in North America as they did pre-pandemic, but we're inching ever closer.
But the effects of the WGA and SAG-AFTRA strikes are now casting a shadow over 2024. Many movies were delayed as a result of the strikes and that has left the first half of this year pretty barren as far as the release calendar goes. It is believed that the domestic box office could take a hit as large as $2 billion this year, which would be very, very bad. But last year taught us that audiences are very much ready to return to the movies when properly motivated to do so. And it doesn't necessarily have to be big sequels and the same old IP leading the way all of the time.
Can Hollywood make moviegoing a regular thing again?
As it stands, there is virtually no chance that 2024's ticket sales match last year's. That sucks, particularly as theater chains like AMC are continuing to try and dig out of the hole that was made for them in 2020. Studios, it's worth mentioning, also really need theatrical revenue, as streaming is largely still unprofitable (save for Netflix) and cord-cutting continues to accelerate. The industry can ill-afford a major downturn.
One thing that perhaps isn't talked about enough is the fact that audience habits changed dramatically during the pandemic. New movies could be streamed at home thanks to the advent of premium VOD, making it even less essential to head to theaters. Let's not forget that ticket prices are more expensive than they were in 2019 when the box office hit a record $11.4 billion, so even fewer people are actually going to the movies. What we've seen over the last couple of years, though, is the ability to turn that tide. "Top Gun: Maverick" brought out older moviegoers en masse, whereas "Five Nights at Freddy's" brought out young people in record numbers. Hollywood must find a way to keep that momentum alive, even in the face of a barren release calendar.
What 2024 needs is some unexpected breakout hits like 2023 had. It needs more imported hits from overseas. It needs more specialty programming. Studios and theaters alike need to put their heads together and figure out ways to keep the momentum going as best they can without as many big, new movies coming until much later in the year. It's easier said than done, but this is a pivotal moment.
Last year ended on a good note. For the good health of the industry moving forward, things mustn't backslide too far before we turn the corner and get beyond the coming down period.
I spoke more about this on today's episode of the /Film Daily podcast, which you can listen to below:
We also counted down my personal top 10 movies of 2023, so check it out!
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