Can Aquaman And The Lost Kingdom Save DC's Very Bad Year At The Box Office?
It's no secret that DC has had a rough year at the box office. Warner Bros. has released three DC Comics movies theatrically in 2023 so far ("Shazam! Fury of the Gods," "The Flash," and "Blue Beetle"), and all three of them have bombed. Suffice it to say, it feels like the forthcoming DC Universe reboot led by James Gunn and Peter Safran can't come soon enough (if it's not too late already). But first, WB has one last superhero juggernaut to release in the form of "Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom." Amazingly enough, the follow-up to the highest-grossing DC movie of all time now feels like a major underdog.
Tracking for director James Wan's "Aquaman" sequel is currently coming in quite a bit lower than the original. The Hollywood Reporter has the film taking in anywhere between $40 and $50 million on opening weekend. The film hits theaters on December 22 and has the benefit of Christmas falling on Monday, giving it a four-day holiday weekend. Even so, current tracking indicates the film will open well below its 2018 predecessor, which opened to $67.8 million en route to $1.15 billion worldwide. Box Office Pro is even more pessimistic regarding the film's prospects, pegging the opening between $29 and $38 million.
For a blockbuster with a $250 million budget, that would be a disaster. Particularly one that is following in the footsteps of such a monster hit. As of this writing, critics haven't weighed in on the film. However, we know production was reportedly chaotic and stretched on for a long, long time. The sequel has also been delayed several times, in no small part thanks to the pandemic. This now feels like a situation where Warner Bros. might have missed the window to truly capitalize on the original's success.
Superhero fatigue may be setting in
Circling back to DC's year in review, "Shazam! Fury of the Gods" grossed just $133 million worldwide against a $125 million budget, making it one of the biggest superhero bombs in history. "The Flash" didn't do much better, taking in $270 million against a $200 million budget and sky-high expectations. Meanwhile, "Blue Beetle" topped out at $129 million against a $100 million budget. The only saving grace there is the fact that the film was originally supposed to go directly to streaming, so one could argue that any box office revenue is better than no box office revenue. Even so, that's far from a win, particularly for a film that WB hoped could launch a new franchise.
DC has unfortunately been on a messy trajectory ever since "Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice" was met with mixed reviews in 2016 (with Zack Snyder moving directly into "Justice League" right after only making things messier). "Suicide Squad" was trashed by critics not long after, yet made big money at the box office. But in recent years, things have slowed down. "Black Adam" failed to cross $400 million worldwide despite literally years of hype, and early pandemic-era releases "Wonder Woman 1984" and "The Suicide Squad" faltered theatrically. It's been a bumpy ride. Hence, Gunn and Safran are hitting the reset button with "Superman: Legacy" in 2025.
And let's be clear, 2023 has proven this isn't just a DC problem. Audiences are being far more choosy about superhero tentpoles in general these days. "Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania" fell off a cliff after a big opening weekend earlier this year, while "The Marvels" full-on bombed, becoming the lowest-grossing MCU movie ever. The only outright successful live-action superhero movie of 2023 was "Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3."
The pressures is on for Aquaman
In other words, it's easy to see why pessimism might be in order here. Jason Momoa is a big star, but can that star power overcome those early tracking numbers? It's also worth noting that "Lost Kingdom" is currently lagging way behind in China, where pre-sales are trailing "The Flash." That's concerning; "Aquaman" made nearly $300 million in the country five years ago. China, unfortunately, hasn't been delivering consistently big returns for American movies since 2020, so this may just be the new reality.
Now, to be clear, this movie doesn't need to make $1 billion to be successful ... but it needs to make a sizable chunk worldwide to justify its existence. Without getting caught in the weeds with movie math, anything under $600 million worldwide would certainly be a disappointment. If audiences respond kindly to the film, it could leg out like the first movie did. Let's not forget: a $67 million opening didn't signal the original would make as much as it did either. It just had very long legs thanks to solid word of mouth and a lack of competition in January.
On that note, January and February are very empty right now in the wake of this year's dual actors' and writers' strike. That could lead to longer legs for Wan's sequel, seeing as it will benefit from a lack of competition (assuming it isn't an outright critical disaster). Even with the big DC reset coming, Warner Bros. needs this movie to help offset a very bad year with the brand. If "Lost Kingdom" suffers the same grim fate as other 2023 DC offerings, then Gunn and Safran will have the weight of the world on their shoulders.
"Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom" hits theaters on December 22, 2023.