I've Seen Every 2026 Best Picture Nominee And Here's What I Think Should Win The Oscar

I love the Oscars. Sue me. I know they're objectively pretty silly, that the Academy makes mistakes in choosing its winners nearly every single year in at least one major category, and that the entire enterprise was created to basically keep actors compliant, as opposed to celebrating film. (If you really want to get into the weeds on this, I highly recommend "Oscar Wars: A History of Hollywood in Gold, Sweat, and Tears" by Michael Schulman.) Still, every year, they're not only a welcome and brief distraction from the horrors of the world (of which there are many), but they're also a welcome opportunity to celebrate the best movies and performances of a particular year.

I try to accomplish this every year but have too often come up short — so, I'm pretty happy to tell you that I have officially watched every single Oscar nominee for Best Picture in the 2026 race. To recap, in alphabetical order, those films are: "Bugonia," "F1," "Frankenstein," "Hamnet," "Marty Supreme," "One Battle After Another," "The Secret Agent," "Sentimental Value," "Sinners, and "Train Dreams." So, what deserves to win?

It's "Sinners." Ryan Coogler's first-ever completely original film, "Sinners" is satisfying, funny, sexy, gut-wrenching, and genuinely spectacular. Led by Michael B. Jordan in dual roles as twins Elijah "Smoke" and Elias "Stack" Moore, "Sinners" tells the story of the Moore twins trying to open a juke joint in the Mississippi Delta in the 1930s, only to be faced with dueling horrors: vampires and the lurking threat of white supremacy. The film is an absolute triumph filled with incredible music, nearly impeccable lore, and great performances across the board — including from Jordan's fellow nominees Wumni Mosaku and Delroy Lindo, who portray Smoke's wife Annie and musician Delta Slim. It should win — but what might beat it?

Thanks to its record-smashing 16 Oscar nominations, "Sinners" does, on many levels, seem poised to take home the big prize in 2026 ... but there's one movie that could and very well might block its victory. That film, incidentally, is another major Warner Bros. release from 2025 crafted by a beloved director: Paul Thomas Anderson's bravura American masterpiece "One Battle After Another," which focuses on revolutionaries fighting for the downtrodden.

To say "One Battle After Another" is pedigreed — compared to "Sinners," honestly — is a massive understatement. Anderson is widely regarded as one of the best working directors, and he's never won an Oscar for his work; the overall film has also snagged acting nominations for its stars Leonardo DiCaprio, Benicio del Toro, and Sean Penn (and both DiCaprio and Penn are former winners to boot). Plus, in early February 2026, Anderson took home the Director's Guild of America award for his work, which is an extremely strong indicator that he'll win Best Director at the Oscars — and beat out Ryan Coogler in the process. 

As satisfying as it would be to see Coogler become the first Black director to win in this category (he's only the seventh ever nominated, which is incredibly embarrassing for the Academy), I have a feeling it's going to be Anderson — meaning the best hope for "Sinners" to still win Best Picture at that point in the night would be to have a rare Best Picture and Best Director split (which has happened). It's tough, though. Both of these movies are exceptional and speak to our present-day in specific and pointed ways, and truly, I'll be excited to watch them duke it out for the night's biggest prize. 

So what about the eight other Best Picture nominees? Are there any potential spoilers here that could block either "Sinners" or "One Battle After Another?" Honestly, no. Barring an absolutely unhinged upset, "Sinners" and "One Battle After Another" are the clear frontrunners. Now that I've gotten out of the way, let's talk about why these eight other movies will likely remain nominees instead of being crowned as winners.

Josh Safdie's "Marty Supreme" is probably "in third place" behind the two frontrunners, and though /Film's chief film critic Chris Evangelista liked the movie (you can read his review here), I don't think it comes close to either of the other two. (In fact, I don't know how much I like it at all, considering that its thesis statement seems to be "What if there was a guy who sucked?!" Still, its star Timothée Chalamet will probably win Best Actor.) I "Hamnet" has, weirdly, become a bit of an "Oscar villain" (at least anecdotally) because it's such a tearjerker — and while I like Chloé Zhao's literary adaptation, it ain't winning. Meanwhile, "F1" is a really long car commercial, "Frankenstein" is good but not Guillermo del Toro's best, "Bugonia" is delightful but far too weird to win, and "Train Dreams" is — I'm sorry! — utterly dull and, more than "Hamnet," pretty clear Oscar bait.

That leaves us with two worthy candidates, "Sentimental Value" and "The Secret Agent" — neither of which will likely win, but which are both great. They're also mostly in non-English —with "Parasite" remaining the exception to the rule when it comes to that particular factor — and less flashy, yet represent incredible cinematic achievements. Still, we'll all have to wait and see who wins at the Oscars ceremony on March 15, 2026.