Avatar: Fire And Ash Will End The 2025 Box Office On A High Note - But How High Will It Fly?

James Cameron is the unquestioned king of the box office. Three of the four biggest movies of all time belong to him. Only seven films have ever made at least $2 billion at the box office, and three of them were directed by Cameron. Two of those are "Avatar" movies and the first "Avatar" remains the highest-grossing film of all time. So, there is a certain level of presumed success in discussing "Avatar: Fire and Ash." It's assured to help end 2025 on a high note. The question is, just how high will the third "Avatar" movie fly?

When it hits theaters next weekend, "Fire and Ash" is projected to pull in between $95 and $115 million in its domestic debut, per Box Office Theory. That more or less lines up with earlier projections, which had the sequel doing between $100 and $130 million (via Deadline). So, we're really looking at the $110 million range as the sweet spot here, barring an over-performance (which isn't out of the cards by any means).

For context, "Avatar" opened to $77 million in 2009 before going on one of the most impressive box office runs of all time thanks to its unheard of legs. It ultimately made $2.74 billion globally in its original run and, through re-releases, that total has since climbed to $2.92 billion. With another re-release, "Avatar" could become the only $3 billion movie ever. Meanwhile, "Avatar: The Way of Water" opened to $134.1 million in 2022 and similarly legged out, finishing with $2.32 billion.

This to say, an over/under $100 million opening weekend absolutely keeps "Fire and Ash" on track to be another $2 billion hit, if we again assume it will have long legs and global appeal. For now, there's little reason to think otherwise.

The first two "Avatar" films made over 70% of their money internationally. And while the international box office has cooled off for Hollywood movies lately, "Fire and Ash" is the type of film that can still play very well worldwide. Really, there's nothing to suggest overseas interest in the "Avatar" movie series will meaningfully wane this time around.

What is noteworthy is the fact that "Fire and Ash" is pacing to open lower than "Way of Water." Obviously, a lot happened in the 13 years between the first two "Avatar" movies, but "Way of Water" made about 15% less than its predecessor globally in terms of its original run. Now, "Fire and Ash" is tracking to open about 18% lower than its predecessor. Are audiences cooling on "Avatar" a bit?

Even if that's the case, we're still looking at a monster hit. Even if the global take for "Five and Ash" is 20% lower than "Way of Water," we're talking about a $1.8 billion global success. That's especially good news for Disney, seeing as the movie's budget is reportedly in the $400 million range, making "Fire and Ash" one of the most expensive films ever. Audience reception will naturally be a factor, but Cameron tends to deliver crowd-pleasers. 

Basically, this movie is going to make a lot of money. With January lacking any meaningful competition, as the likes of "Send Help" and "Greenland 2: Migration" will have relatively limited appeal, it's set up to leg out for weeks on end. The only real, lingering question is whether or not it will make enough money to justify "Avatar 4" and "Avatar 5." But that's a conversation for another time.

"Avatar: Fire and Ash" hits theaters on December 19, 2025.