Wicked: For Good Poised To Become One Of The Biggest Box Office Hits Of 2025

After a bumpy several weeks, things are looking up at the box office. Theater owners finally had reason to cheer after "Predator: Badlands" posted a bigger-than-expected $80 million global opening. The situation is only going to get better as November continues to unfold, particularly as the release of the much-anticipated "Wicked: For Good" is just around the corner. It now seems like Universal Pictures and director Jon M. Chu are going to deliver one of the biggest movies of 2025 overall.

Previously, it was reported that the sequel was eyeing an opening in the $112 to $115 million range. That would have been right in line with last year's "Wicked," which opened to $112.5 million on its way to an eventual $756.4 million worldwide. However, those figures may be on the lowest end of the spectrum. Instead, "For Good" is currently eyeing a possible domestic opening of $160-$190 million when it arrives next weekend, per Box Office Theory. Meanwhile, The Hollywood Reporter's estimates were also more bullish than what was previously reported, at $115 to $120 million.

The biggest domestic opening weekends of 2025 belong to "A Minecraft Movie" ($162.7 million), "Lilo & Stitch" ($146 million), "Superman" ($125 million), and "The Fantastic Four: First Steps" ($117.6 million). As such, it appears Chu's musical has a shot at taking the crown in that department. That figures to be just the tip of the iceberg, though.

The sequel centers on Elphaba (Cynthia Erivo) and Glinda (Ariana Grande), who are estranged and living with the consequences of their choices. Elphaba has been demonized as The Wicked Witch of the West as she lives in exile, continuing her fight for the freedom of Oz's silenced Animals, even as she desperately tries to expose the truth she harbors about The Wizard (Jeff Goldblum).

North American audiences favored "Wicked," accounting for about 62% of ticket sales. Even so, domestic is just part of the equation, and if the sequel does open over/under $40 million or more than its predecessor in the U.S., it's easy to imagine that international audiences will follow suit. People have had the opportunity to catch up with the film on VOD and streaming. In theory, the potential audience for the follow-up is bigger. That is backed up by these updated estimates.

Recall that "Avengers: Infinity War" made $2 billion worldwide, only for "Avengers: Endgame" to make $2.79 billion the following year. We could be looking at a similar situation here. Universal is going to come out of this looking very smart after deciding to break "Wicked" up into two movies rather than cramming it all into one.

Also working in the movie's favor will be the Thanksgiving holiday frame. The first movie dropped just 28% on its second weekend thanks to a strong holiday turnout. Universal should expect similar results this time around. Not to get too ahead of ourselves, but if this movie truly does earn over/under 30% more than its predecessor, we could be looking at a $1 billion global grosser.

If these opening weekend estimates are even close to right, it will be of great relief to theaters, which have suffered greatly post-summer. October 2025 was the worst October at the box office since 1997. Lots of movies failed to deliver against expectations, leaving room for lousy weekends left and right. In even better news, November will also see heavy-hitters like "The Running Man" and, more importantly, Disney's "Zootopia 2" arriving. Greener pastures lie on the horizon, to be certain.

"Wicked: For Good" hits theaters on November 21, 2025.