Stephen King's The Long Walk Movie Faces An Uphill Battle At The Box Office

Not to get too cute about it, but Stephen King is an unquestioned king of the horror genre. His prolific work as an author alone would make him a legend, but it helps a great deal that many of his stories have been adapted into movies over the years. 2017's "It" became the biggest horror movie ever with over $700 million at the box office. So, despite very stiff competition, can the long-awaited big adaptation of King's "The Long Walk" overcome the odds and become another winner? Or is this hill too steep to climb?

As of this writing, "The Long Walk" is expected to pull in between $6 and $11 million domestically when it opens next weekend, per Box Office Theory. That is, admittedly, a not-so-big number. Though the budget hasn't been revealed, director Francis Lawrence ("Constantine") told Screen Rant that they made it for "a small amount of money." If we assume for argument's sake that means $25 million or less, then that opening number isn't a death sentence, especially since we still have overseas ticket sales to consider. The killer, however, might be challengers vying for attention in the marketplace.

Also opening next weekend will be "Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale," which is expected to make between $15 and $20 million. The biggest competition, though, comes in the form of "Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba Infinity Castle," which might pull in $50 million or more when it arrives in the U.S. The latest entry in the very popular anime franchise has already made nearly $300 million elsewhere in the world, mainly in its native Japan. It's worth remembering that "Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba — The Movie: Mugen Train" became an unexpectedly huge hit in 2020/2021, even topping the charts in North America. It went on to make more than $500 million globally. 

"Spinal Tap II: The End Continues" is also opening next weekend, but that figures to have a muted debut. Last but not least, Disney is re-releasing the original "Toy Story." That's a lot for moviegoers to choose from. This is to say nothing of "The Conjuring: Last Rites," which is looking to do big business and will be entering its second weekend.

In "The Long Walk," one boy from each state is selected to take part in an annual contest where the winner will be awarded whatever he wants for the rest of his life. The objective? Walk at a pace of three miles per hour without stopping. Three warnings, and you're out — permanently. The cast includes Cooper Hoffman ("Licorice Pizza"), David Jonsson ("Alien: Romulus"), and Mark Hamill ("Star Wars"), among others.

The film is based on the novel of the same name that was originally released under King's pen name, Richard Bachman. Many, many versions of the movie were developed over the years, but never came to pass. Lawrence and Lionsgate, along with writer JT Mollner ("Strange Darling") got this one across the finish line. That was the big challenge. The next challenge becomes carving out room for the movie in a crowded market.

Aside from a small budget, this film also has critics on its side. "The Long Walk" has been met with largely glowing reviews, which could help its prospects well beyond opening weekend — especially since the September slate isn't terribly strong overall. As we also saw over the summer, horror is strong at the box office. "Weapons," "Final Destination Bloodlines," and "28 Years Later" were all huge hits. Audiences will show up for horror. They are loyal viewers.

For what it's worth, Deadline has the new "Demon Slayer" movie making a slightly more modest sum, between $20 and $29 million. The bigger question is, does the anime fandom cross over too much with the horror fandom? "Downton Abbey," whatever it makes, is definitely going for a different crowd. "The Conjuring" has more direct overlap, but if word of mouth develops and keeps this movie alive beyond opening weekend, the robust competition may not doom it out of the gate. At the very least, its opening figures to be a bigger weekend at the movies than anyone expected even just a few weeks ago.

"The Long Walk" hits theaters on September 12, 2025.