Jurassic World Rebirth's Box Office Tracking Suggests Some Major Questions For The Franchise

One of the biggest franchises in cinema history is roaring back to life this summer as Universal Pictures' "Jurassic World Rebirth" is just around the corner. Though 2022's "Jurassic World Dominion" was billed as something of a conclusion, it was merely the conclusion of a trilogy. Three years later, we're back with a new dino-filled blockbuster that features a new cast in a new setting and will presumably set up a new future for the property. The question is, can "Rebirth" also keep this franchise's streak of $1 billion runs at the box office alive? Or are we going to start seeing signs of decline?

Director Gareth Edwards' "Rebirth" is currently expected to pull in between $67 and $77 million domestically over Fourth of July weekend, per Box Office Theory. That would be the lowest opening weekend for the property by far since at least 1997's "The Lost World: Jurassic Park" ($72.1 million) or possibly 2001's "Jurassic Park III" ($50.7 million). Mind you, that's without accounting for inflation. But there's a big catch here. The movie is opening mid-week on July 2 to get in early on the long holiday. Across the full five-day opening stretch, it is expected to pull in between $115 to $135 million, per Deadline.

While that's a number more befitting this franchise, it's still lagging well behind the openings for all three films in the previous "Jurassic World" trilogy. "Dominion" itself bowed to $145 million in June 2022 across a standard three-day weekend despite downright terrible reviews. It eventually legged out to barely get over the $1 billion mark globally, becoming one of just a small handful of movies to make it past that milestone in the pandemic era.

For further context, 2015's "Jurassic World" debuted to a then-record $208 million on its way to $1.67 billion worldwide, becoming one of the biggest movies of all time up to that point. 2018's "Fallen Kingdom," despite suffering very mixed reviews, similarly premiered to $148 million domestically and finished with $1.3 billion globally. Overall, though, what we're seeing is a relatively steady decline with each new entry.

"Jurassic World" arrived 14 years after "JP3" to largely positive reviews, particularly from audiences. "Dominion," on the other hand, was met with the worst reviews in the franchise to date. While full reviews for "Rebirth" haven't dropped, as of this writing, the online reactions have been far more positive. That could help in terms of legs after what looks to be a softer opening weekend (relative to the $6 billion "Jurassic" franchise anyhow).

"Rebirth" picks up five years after the events of "Dominion," with the remaining dinosaurs on the planet now mostly existing in isolated spots around the equator. From there, the film follows a group of people as they travel to a remote island to extract DNA from three massive dinosaurs, as the genetic material is crucial for a new drug that will bring life-saving benefits to humankind. Scarlett Johansson ("Black Widow"), Rupert Friend ("Obi-Wan Kenobi"), Jonathan Bailey ("Wicked"), and Mahershala Ali ("Moonlight") star.

For Universal, there are big, long-term questions at play here. Even with a softer opening, can "Rebirth" help get the franchise back on track? "Dominion" ran the risk of being the point of no return in that regard, similar to what "Transformers: The Last Knight" was to the "Transformers" movies. Recall that "The Last Knight" dipped badly at the box office compared to its predecessors, and the "Transformers" films have yet to recover in spite of Paramount's best efforts. In other words, Universal needs to avoid an uncontrolled downward spiral along those lines here, as this is one of the studio's biggest cash cows.

"Rebirth" doesn't need to clear $1 billion to become a hit, of course. With a reported budget of $180 million, the movie simply needs to make something in the range of $600 million (especially in light of how much money these films bring in with regard to revenue from merchandise and whatnot). But what it can't do is further make audiences say, "I've had enough." Because it's not about this movie, it's about the next film. Universal needs this to be "Spider-Man: Homecoming," which set up a bigger movie to come after the disappointment that was "The Amazing Spider-Man 2."

In short, the studio has a lot riding on this movie. If it has to return to the drawing board, winning audiences back is going to be easier said than done.

"Jurassic World Rebirth" opens in theaters on July 2, 2025.