The Fall Guy Leads The Worst Summer Box Office Kick-Off In Decades
The 2024 summer box office season kicked off with a whimper over the weekend. Universal's "The Fall Guy," which boasts a cast led by Ryan Gosling ("Barbie") and Emily Blunt ("Oppenheimer"), debuted to a very disappointing $28.5 million domestically. That was, essentially, on par with 2021's "Free Guy," a movie that opened under far worse circumstances as the pandemic was a much larger factor at that time. It's a grim number for a $130 million blockbuster with an A-list cast. So much so that it now ranks as the worst summer season kick-off movie in decades.
No movie from 2004 on has opened lower than $29 million on the first weekend of May. For the last 15 years, we've had a big Marvel movie in theaters to help kick things off with a bang. Last year we had "Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3" opening to $118.4 million. It even held quite well and posted a $60.5 million second weekend, more than double what "Fall Guy" just did in its opening frame. So, year-to-year, we're off to a comparatively brutal start. Unfortunately, taking a deeper look at the numbers from the past doesn't inspire any optimism.
By my calculations, the last time a movie opened worse on the first weekend of May was "The Lizzie McGuire Movie" on May 2, 2003, which debuted with $17.3 million. However, "The Matrix Reloaded" was right around the corner on May 15 ($91.7 million opening/$738.5 million worldwide) to set things straight. We'll get into this more in a minute but we've got to wait months for a likely hit of that size to hit theaters. Moreover, if we adjust for inflation, "Lizzie McGuire" would have opened to around $29.3 million in today's dollars, which is just a touch more than what "Fall Guy" made.
Why didn't audiences show up for The Fall Guy?
David Leitch directed "The Fall Guy," which is loosely based on the '80s TV series of the same name. It centers on former stuntman Colt Seavers (Gosling), who is called back to his profession more than a year after suffering a major accident when the star of a major studio movie goes missing. Adding a wrinkle to the situation is the fact that the movie is being directed by his former girlfriend, Jody Moreno (Blunt). Heading into the weekend burdened with unreasonable expectations, estimates had the film taking in closer to $40 million. The fact that it came in below already low projections is bleak.
Nobody can say that Universal didn't try to get audiences out for "The Fall Guy." They premiered the film at SXSW, screened it early at CinemaCon, and did a massive, at times creative press tour. The studio tried and tried hard to get the word out. Unofficially billing it as the third chapter in the Barbenheimer trilogy didn't quite pan out. And, for what it's worth, they had every reason to believe it was a good investment. The film was met with very positive reviews, currently boasting an 83% on Rotten Tomatoes. It also holds an A- CinemaScore, which is tied with recent crowd-pleasers such as "Kung Fu Panda 4" and "Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire."
The hope here is that good word of mouth from moviegoers can save the film as the weeks roll on. Though rare, we have seen certain movies recover from a soft opening weekend such as this. Last year's "Elemental" is the prime example of the modern era, with the Pixar original opening to $29.6 million before legging out to $154.4 million domestically and $496.4 million worldwide. It now ranks as the biggest original Hollywood movie since the pandemic began. That, unfortunately, might not be the best comparison as animated family films tend to have less direct competition in the marketplace.
Is a box office savior on the horizon?
We're looking at a massive-budget action/comedy that opened below Leitch's 2022 film "Bullet Train" ($30 million opening/$239.2 million worldwide). Yes, that movie did have legs, but it also had a smaller $90 million budget. Given that "Fall Guy" cost $130 million — not factoring in that costly marketing campaign — it needs to make a heck of a lot more than "Bullet Train" to break even. More than that, ticket sales for 2024 are already lagging more than 20% behind 2023. Theaters desperately need a win right now and they're counting on the summer season to deliver the goods.
The good news is that help is on the way. "Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes" is set to hit theaters this weekend, opening as high as $60 million, give or take. If word of mouth is strong, I can personally see that number going higher. But again, that's still a far cry from where we were last summer. Not to mention that 2023 was still well below pre-pandemic levels as far as both the domestic and global box office are concerned. We've got a long way to go and the early months of 2024 have not helped to get the industry to where it needs to be.
Looking further ahead, our first guaranteed $100 million opening weekend won't come until "Despicable Me 4" opens in the first weekend of July. Sure, movies like "Furiosa" and "A Quiet Place: Day One" figure to do well along the way, but they're not going to be able to make up for what has already been lost. Who knows? Maybe that means there will be room for "The Fall Guy" to leg out in the coming weeks. That, however, requires optimism, which is hard to come by at the moment.
"The Fall Guy" is in theaters now.