Gladiator 2's Budget Is Reportedly So Big That It's Guaranteed To Disappoint At The Box Office
One of the most anticipated movies of the year is undoubtedly Ridley Scott's "Gladiator 2." More than 20 years after the filmmaker's Best Picture-winning historical epic first hit theaters, a follow-up is on the way and it's likely to be both a big draw during awards season next year, as well as a big draw at the box office. That said, it is now an underdog of epic proportions as Paramount Pictures has allowed the budget to balloon to such a point where it's almost impossible that this movie will actually make money during its theatrical run. Far more likely? It's going to bomb.
According to The Hollywood Reporter, "Gladiator 2" has a budget close to $310 million, which would put it amongst the most expensive movies ever made, right up there with last year's "Fast X." It was originally given the green light with a budget of $165 million which was, frankly, a sizable figure for a historical epic of this sort in the first place, even considering that it's a sequel to a much-beloved classic. But coming close to doubling that already high figure puts this into clusterf**k territory. For what it's worth, Paramount sources dispute the figure, saying it was under $250 million. But when you're in a position to argue that a $250 million budget is a good thing, it's a dire situation.
Even if we assume that Paramount is relatively thrifty with the marketing, there's no chance of marketing a movie of that size for less than $100 million. That would bring the total investment to around $400 million, give or take. If we use some rule-of-thumb movie math, that means the sequel would have to earn at least $800 million at the global box office just to have a shot at breaking even, roughly speaking, since theaters keep about half the money from ticket sales. That makes this a steep uphill battle.
Gladiator 2 is an unmitigated disaster in the making
The number of movies that have made $800 million or more in the pandemic era is few and far between. At this point, Paramount is hoping this will become the next "Top Gun: Maverick." Is it impossible that this movie hits just the right nostalgia nerve and makes nearly $1.5 billion worldwide? It's not impossible, no, but it's wildly unlikely. Far more likely? It goes the way of "Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny," which made $384 million worldwide against a budget in the $300 million range. In other words, the studio stands to lose a fortune here even if the movie sells a respectable number of tickets.
"Gladiator" was a huge hit in its day, taking in $460 million worldwide. If we account for inflation, that would be around $823 million in today's dollars. But that was 24 years ago, and so much has changed. Can Paramount truly bank on this movie being just as big of a hit as the original just to break even? Is Paul Mescal capable of being the movie star that Russell Crowe once was? These are very expensive questions.
Granted, this movie had to weather the Hollywood strikes last year, which added millions to the bottom line. Although the report puts that figure at $10 million, that doesn't nearly account for the fully ballooned cost. Whatever the case, no movie needs to cost $300 million and when Hollywood lets this happen, it's bad for everyone involved. It's not a new problem, and it's one I've talked about a great deal in the past. But it's one that needs to resolve itself sooner rather than later. This simply cannot be allowed to happen in the future if we want to have a healthy theatrical marketplace. Period.
"Gladiator 2" is set to hit theaters on November 22, 2024.