Can The Color Purple Become This Year's Big Christmas Hit At The Box Office?
Every year, Christmas comes along to bring a big new release or two to the box office. Often, it's a major awards season contender. Other times, it's a big-budget tentpole from a studio looking to capitalize on the holiday window. In some cases, it's both. "The Color Purple" firmly falls into the "both" category as it is unquestionably a movie that Warner Bros. wants in the Oscar conversation, but also one they spent a great deal of money on. So, can the movie become the big Christmas season hit the studio is banking on?
Directed by Blitz Bazawule ("Black Is King"), the big-budget musical opens on Christmas Day this year, which falls on a Monday. It will be facing quite a bit of competition as "Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom" (also a Warner Bros. release) opens on December 22, with A24's "The Iron Claw," Illumination's animated "Migration," and Sony's rom-com "Anyone But You" also opening that day. On Christmas, Michael Mann's "Ferrari" and George Clooney's "The Boys in the Boat" also open wide. Not to mention "Wonka," which figures to still be hanging around, offering another flavor to the musical-loving crowd.
It's a little tough to pin down the film's opening prospects as it is debuting on a Monday but Deadline is pegging the opening day at around $8 million domestic, which would be a very solid start. Box Office Pro has the full opening frame pegged between $16 and $22 million. The budget has yet to be revealed but it's said to be in the $90 to $100 million range, putting it in the same ballpark as Steven Spielberg's "West Side Story." That film earned just $76 million worldwide opening in December 2021. Admittedly, the pandemic was a larger factor at that time.
An expensive gamble on another big musical
"The Color Purple" is an adaptation of both the novel and Broadway musical, and was previously adapted by Spielberg in 1985. That film was a huge hit, taking in $98 million domestically against a $15 million budget. That would equate to roughly $280 million against a $43 million budget in today's dollars. WB is certainly hoping for a similar performance here.
The film is a decades-spanning tale focusing on Celie's journey to independence, finding strength and hope in the unbreakable bonds of sisterhood. The ensemble cast includes Taraji P. Henson ("Hidden Figures"), Danielle Brooks ("Peacemaker"), Colman Domingo ("Fear the Walking Dead"), Corey Hawkins ("BlacKkKlansman"), H.E.R. ("Judas and the Black Messiah"), Halle Bailey ("The Little Mermaid"), Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor ("King Richard"), and Fantasia Barrino in her major motion picture debut.
Luckily, critics are very much on this one's side as the film currently holds an 89% approval rating on Rotten Tomatoes. /Film's Josh Spiegel wasn't aligned with many other critics, and you can read his 4 out of 10 review right here. What really counts is how audiences feel about it. If it's a crowd-pleaser that generates word-of-mouth buzz, it can leg out through the holidays and into awards season. If audiences are soft on it? That becomes far less likely.
Also of note is the fact that "Wonka," yet another Warner Bros. release, is a musical with a big, $125 million budget. Can the market sustain two musicals — albeit very different ones — at the same time? Is WB going to cannibalize itself a bit? These are important questions. Frankly, musicals remain a tough sell. "La La Land" was the exception, not the rule. "Cyrano" ($6 million box office/$30 million budget) is closer to reality much of the time.
Can The Color Purple pull a Greatest Showman?
The reason a studio would be willing to risk it on a musical, uncertain though the genre may be in modern times, is because when they hit, they hit big. "The Greatest Showman" is one of the premiere examples in recent years, with the film opening to a seemingly disastrous $8.8 million back in December 2017, only to have one of the most amazing runs in box office history after that. It finished with $174 million domestic and $434 million worldwide against a similarly big $84 million budget.
That's the extreme example, yes, but even with a small opening weekend, these movies can't be counted out entirely. And it looks like this movie will have a better opening than "Greatest Showman." Another recent example of a musical showing long legs was Disney's "Mary Poppins Returns." Released in December 2018, it opened to $23.5 million before eventually grossing $172 million domestically and $349 million worldwide. Even with a $130 million budget, that was a win.
Looking on a slightly longer timeline, the first chunk of 2024 is largely devoid of big releases in no small part thanks to the WGA and SAG strikes that shut down Hollywood for months. "Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom" is tracking soft and moviegoers may be short on options. If "The Color Purple" gets meaningful buzz from audiences, it could be set up for unusually long legs, benefiting from a lack of big releases in January. With optimism in place, it could be December's breakout hit, and one that theaters could really use.
"The Color Purple" hits theaters on December 25, 2023.