Five Nights At Freddy's Is Poised To Become The Next Big Horror Sensation At The Box Office
It may be Taylor Swift tearing up the box office right now, but the pop star has some major competition coming just around the corner in the form of some deadly animatronic robots. "Five Nights at Freddy's," which is adapted from the wildly popular series of video games of the same name, is set to arrive just in time for Halloween. And, after years of being stuck in development hell, it appears as though the film is going to have the second-biggest debut of the fall season thus far. It is poised to become the next big horror sensation.
Tracking is a bit all over the place for this one but Deadline reports that the video game adaptation, which hails from Blumhouse Productions and Universal Pictures, is set to make around $40 million on opening weekend. The outlet also reports that $30 million is considered the worst-case scenario here and, given that the film carries a production budget in the $20 million range, that would still be pretty damn good. Not to mention that these are just domestic numbers. That's to say nothing of what the film might make overseas.
Those numbers may be conservative though as Box Office Pro currently has director Emma Tammi's film taking in anywhere between $41 and $60 million. Needless to say, it appears Blumhouse is about to have another franchise on its hands. What's perhaps most surprising is that the movie is going to be available to stream on Peacock on the same day that it hits theaters, much like "Halloween Kills" and "Halloween Ends."
Will the Peacock release affect the bottom line?
Peacock is owned by NBCUniversal and they are lagging behind a bit in the streaming game. Bringing high-profile, new releases to the service that are still in theaters is a way to try and attract subscribers. That's logical enough. But to what degree that impacts the bottom line for a movie like "Five Nights at Freddy's" is difficult to quantify. That said, we can look at "Halloween Ends" last year, which tumbled a massive 80% on its second weekend after coming in below projections on opening weekend. Yes, it still made $105 million worldwide against a $20 million budget — an absolute win — but it certainly would have made more were it not for the day-and-date Peacock release.
Granted, "Five Nights at Freddy's" does have a younger-skewing audience, as a lot of kids grew up playing these wildly popular games. Going to the movies isn't necessarily as cheap as it once was, so watching it at home might be a better option for younger viewers. It also might be enough to get that household to subscribe to Peacock. That's the idea. Would it be better for the film and Universal financially, in the grand scheme of things, to go with an exclusive theatrical release at least for a few weeks? That's not for me to say but, in any event, it's crystal clear that anticipation for this one is high.
The film centers on a troubled young man named Mike who is caring for his 10-year-old sister and is haunted by the disappearance of his younger brother more than a decade before. Desperate for work, Mike agrees to take a position as a night security guard at an abandoned restaurant, Freddy Fazbear's Pizzeria. He quickly discovers that nothing is what it seems. With the help of a local police officer named Vanessa, Mike's nights at Freddy's will lead him down a nightmarish path. One filled with killer animatronic robots.
A new horror sensation in the making?
The fall season has, thus far, been ruled by "Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour," which recently posted a gigantic $92.8 million opening weekend domestically. That is far and away the current high watermark for the season, and one of the biggest opening weekends of the year. "Freddy's," even on the low end, is now poised to take the silver medal in that regard. Other recent opening weekend totals include "The Exorcist: Believer" ($26.5 million), "Paw Patrol: The Mighty Movie" ($22.7 million), "Saw X" ($18.3 million), and "The Nun II" ($14.5 million).
It's easy to see how this could be another win that theaters could absolutely use right now, even with the Peacock release likely taking away some attention. The fact that this movie is expected to make a significant amount more than the flashy new "Exorcist" movie says a great deal about the popularity of these games with younger viewers. It's also important to note that Blumhouse head Jason Blum has ensured success to some degree with the film. In a recent Fortune profile, the executive revealed that the movie's budget has already been covered by selling the streaming and international rights. So it will pretty much instantly be making money. It would not be surprising if a sequel is announced within weeks of the movie's theatrical debut.
The cast includes Josh Hutcherson ("The Hunger Games"), Elizabeth Lail ("You"), Kat Conner Sterling ("We Have a Ghost"), Piper Rubio ("Holly & Ivy"), Mary Stuart Masterson ("Benny & Joon"), and Matthew Lillard ("Scream"). The creator of the games Scott Cawthon penned the screenplay alongside Seth Cuddeback ("Mateo") and Tammi.
"Five Nights at Freddy's" arrives in theaters and on Peacock on October 27, 2023.