Can The Nun II Scare Up Another Big Box Office Win For The Conjuring Universe?
September has turned into an odd month this year, in terms of its box office prospects. September is always a bit quiet with that post-summer hangover, but this year the dual strikes have all but shut down Hollywood, with stars and writers not able to promote projects making things feel particularly quiet. But as "The Nun II" attempts to keep the unbroken hot streak going for the franchise, the latest chapter in The Conjuring Universe may also be able to scare up a hit that theaters could sorely use as the strikes drag on.
Directed by Michael Chaves, "The Nun II" is currently tracking for an opening in the $30 million range, per Deadline. That would be lower than "The Nun," which opened to a huge $53 million back in 2018. That said, it would still be a win for Warner Bros. and New Line, as these movies have, at most, cost $40 million to produce. On the cheap end, they've come in around $20 million. The point is, even with a sizable marketing campaign, this is not an overly expensive movie, and an opening weekend in that range sets the film up for success. And that's a possibly conservative projection.
The folks at Box Office Pro currently have the sequel at $30 million on the low end, with $45 million possible at the top end. Even with a lack of promotion from the movie's stars, that would not be hard to believe. The Conjuring Universe has, to date, earned about $2 billion at the global box office not counting "The Curse of La Llorona," as that film doesn't officially count as part of the official universe.
The safest bet in September
Every single movie in the series dating back to James Wan's "The Conjuring" in 2013 has earned at least $200 million worldwide, with even "The Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It" pulling in $200.2 million in 2021 when the pandemic was still a much larger factor. Not to mention that the movie was released on HBO Max (now just Max) the same day it hit theaters. This franchise is as close to bulletproof as they come.
Most importantly, "The Nun" remains the highest-grossing entry in the franchise to date, having earned $363.3 million worldwide. This, despite the fact that the movie was not exactly a hit with critics. It's widely considered to be one of the worst movies in the series to date. So, if Chaves works his magic and the sequel is met with praise, it stands to reason that its prospects will only rise. In a month filled with sequels like "The Equalizer 3," "My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3," "A Haunting In Venice," and "Expend4bles," this feels by far the safest bet of the bunch.
"The Nun II" once again focuses on the demon nun Valak whom we first met in "The Conjuring 2," with Taissa Farmiga returning as Sister Irene. The sequel takes place in France in 1956 after a priest is murdered, bringing Sister Irene face-to-face with Valak once again.
Horror has proved to be shockingly resilient in the pandemic era. From the success of the micro-budget "Skinamarink" to the blockbuster success of "M3GAN" and everything in between, horror stays winning. It certainly doesn't hurt that "Insidious: The Last Door" went on to become the highest-grossing entry in that particular franchise over the summer. Almost everything James Wan touches turns to gold, and he's the architect of this particular universe. In short, Valak is going to scare up a lot of money once again.
"The Nun II" is set to hit theaters on September 8, 2023.