Everything That Will Happen If The SAG-AFTRA Strike Goes Through
Hollywood is already more than two months into a strike by the Writers Guild of America, with many productions completely shut down, and now the industry is on the precipice of something it hasn't faced for 63 years: a double strike.
Negotiations have been taking place for weeks between AMPTP (the trade association that negotiates on behalf of studios) and SAG-AFTRA (the union that represents approximately 160,000 American film and TV actors). SAG-AFTRA members have voted by an overwhelming majority (97.91 percent) to authorize strike action if a deal isn't reached by the deadline — originally 11:59 pm P.T. on June 30, but extended to the same time on Wednesday, July 12. Though SAG-AFTRA initially said that talks had been "extremely productive," the tone has since shifted.
On Monday, two days before the deadline, SAG-AFTRA held a conference call with publicity agencies to prepare them for the possibility of a strike and to answer questions about what that would mean for the agencies' A-list clients. It certainly seems like the union is gearing up for industrial action, and according to Variety's sources, talks are not going well. One anonymous producer said "it would be a miracle at this point" to reach a deal by Wednesday, while another source said that "everything fell apart" over the negotiating table last Friday.
Many film and TV shoots have already shut down due to the writers strike, but if actors join the writers on Thursday, Hollywood could be left dead in the water. Our own sources tell us that actors are currently being asked to work non-stop in an effort to get all their shooting done before the potential strike, as well as receiving emails prepping them for industrial action. Here's what to expect if a strike happens.
From 80 percent shutdown to total shutdown
The New York Times describes Hollywood as currently being "80 percent shut down" amid the writers strike, which has proven highly impactful thanks to strong organization, strategy, and solidarity from the other unions. While the WGA is the only film industry guild currently on strike, and filming can (in theory) take place without having a writer on set, members of other unions have the right to refuse to cross a picket line at their place of work. Thanks to tip-offs about where shoots are scheduled to take place, WGA members have been able to get to the locations first and set up picket lines, which very effectively shuts down production in most cases. Many WGA members believe that no filming should take place while writers are on strike, because even a small line change by the director or an actor improvising lines are forms of strikebreaking.
Still, some productions have been able to carry on — primarily those shoots taking place outside of the WGA hubs of Los Angeles and New York. "Andor" season 2 has carried on filming in the U.K. without any ongoing input from showrunner Tony Gilroy, and Ridley Scott's "Gladiator" sequel has been filming in Malta. If SAG-AFTRA declares a strike, though, it doesn't matter where in the world its members are: everyone must stop work, from major stars with eight-figure deals, to actors in minor roles with just one or two lines.
Some filming could potentially carry on — for example, helicopter and drone shots of landscapes for establishing shots — but there are very few shots in a typical film that don't feature actors, and even stunts are off-limits since stunt coordinators and performers are covered by SAG-AFTRA. Post-production work like VFX and musical scoring can continue, but actors cannot do any ADR (re-recording lines).
Goodbye, press tours
An actors strike doesn't just mean no acting; it also means that actors cannot do any kind of promotion for movies that they're in. The late night talk show promotional circuit is already dead, due to the writers strike shutting down shows like "Late Night with Seth Meyers" and "The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon." (As you'll know if you watched the latest season of "The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel," talk show hosts generally don't write their own jokes.) A SAG-AFTRA strike would expand that promotion shutdown. No more videos of actors answering questions while playing with puppies. No thanking fans for their support by jumping out of a plane. No press conferences, no junkets, no red carpets. According to TheWrap's sources, the union drew a hard line during the conference call with publicity agencies:
Actors will not be permitted to take part in promotional work of any kind, including press junkets, film premieres, and fan events like San Diego Comic-Con. Actors are permitted to attend the pop culture convention as long as they don't take part in any panels that promote a specific film or television show or discuss any current or future work. While attendance is allowed, individuals with knowledge of the publicist meeting tell TheWrap that SAG-AFTRA would prefer that its members completely skip the event later this month.
Sources also say that SAG-AFTRA has informed publicists that any scheduled press or acting work after a strike is ordered must be cancelled. SAG-AFTRA members are also not permitted to promote any work on social media, as that is considered publicity.
In anticipation of a potential actors strike in addition to the ongoing writers strike, Disney, Netflix, Sony, and Universal have already opted out of Hall H presentations at Comic-Con this year.
Why SAG-AFTRA could strike
The WGA and SAG-AFTRA are both negotiating on two key issues: residuals and artificial intelligence. Residuals, which are payments that actors receive from TV reruns, streaming platforms, and home media releases, were first won in the last Hollywood double strike, back in 1963. That strike, which was led by Ronald Reagan in his role as SAG president, lasted from March 7 to April 18, 1960, and was accompanied by a writers strike that lasted from January 16 to June 12 that same year.
Like writers, actors have been hit hard by the rise of streaming, which has led to much smaller residual payments than they used to receive. Eric Edelstein, a character actor who appeared in a small role as a paddock supervisor in "Jurassic World," told the LA Times that in one quarter he received $1,400 in residuals from reruns of the movie on cable, and just $40 from streaming platforms in the same period. With streaming viewership overtaking cable TV for the first time last year, negotiating fair residuals from streaming is crucial to the future of actors' livelihoods.
Then there's the matter of AI, which has already seen Bruce Willis' "digital twin" doing commercials in Russia and James Earl Jones handing off his Darth Vader duties to an AI voice clone. Actors fear that it will become standard for contracts to demand that they give up the rights to their voice and likeness, so that studios can recreate them on screen without having to pay for another performance. "To give away that consent upfront is also a scary thing too, compensation aside," actor Matt Bush ("The Goldbergs") told the LA Times.
How long could a SAG-AFTRA strike last?
As you can see from the dates of the 1960 Hollywood strikes, studios generally cave to the pressure of an actors strike faster than a writers strike. That said, studios have also been strategically preparing for strikes ahead of the contract negotiations. The Financial Times reported back in March that studios were stockpiling scripts and pressuring writers to turn work in early so that productions would be able to continue in spite of a writers strike.
Studios have similarly been taking action in anticipation of a SAG-AFTRA strike. Press junkets for upcoming summer releases like "Barbie," and "Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem" took place in June so that distributors could have pre-recorded interviews and other materials on hand if actors were no longer able to promote their movies in July and August. According to Deadline's sources, studios are prepared to hold out in the face of a SAG-AFTRA strike — at least, for a while:
In several wide-ranging conversations with studio execs, we hear that even if the actors were to strike for a short-term period or even for months, studios will risk it and keep their 2023 theatrical release schedules intact. So far, release date changes are not expected.
Like the WGA strike, the impact of a SAG-AFTRA strike for moviegoers and TV audiences would mostly be felt next year, potentially beginning in late 2023. Already we're expecting release dates to be pushed back, with productions like Marvel's "Blade" and "Thunderbolts" shut down. A double strike would have a compounding effect, and while release dates for the next few months are unlikely to change, if lack of promotion cuts into the box office for summer movies then studios could consider delaying major holiday releases like "Wonka" and "Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom."