The /Film Crew’s 2016 Oscars Predictions

2016 oscar predictions

The 88th annual Academy Awards are this Sunday and this looks to be one of the most contentious ceremonies in years. There are no clear frontrunners in more than a few categories and many of the major nominees have as many detractors as they do boosters. For those who take an interest in awards season, it’s a rollercoaster. A glorious, insane, and frequently infuriating rollercoaster.

And while we here at /Film are not professional awards prognosticators, we are going to dive into this race head-on like the spirited amateurs that we are. We have put aside what we want to win and and have started focusing on what we think will win (which is easier said than done, because we’re team Mad Mad: Fury Road around these parts). We’re going to predict this year’s winners – and whoever gets the most right is going to win a shiny non-prize.

Here’s how the process works. Every participating member of the team (Ethan Anderton, David Chen, Jack Giroux, Jacob Hall, Angie Han) was given 100 points per category to distribute as they saw fit. This means they could put all of their points on a single nominee if they feel confident about a victory or they could split it up between several nominees if they were unsure who was going to win. This flexible system allows for degrees of uncertainty. You don’t have to put all of your eggs in one basket if you think a category will prove contentious or if you suspect an upset. Plus, it’s a lot more fun than just picking a single category.

Once ballots were submitted (and you can see everyone’s personal ballots at the very end of this article), points were tallied up for each category and each nominee. The results can be found below. When all is said and done, we’ll be able to tally up all of the points we placed on the ultimate victors and see how well the overall /Film team fared.

But as we mentioned above, this is a competition! We will ultimately compare the final results at the Oscars this Sunday to everyone’s personal ballots. Each member of the /Film team will receive the points they wagered on a winner and whoever earns the most points wins. And what do they win? Bragging rights for a year! The greatest Non-Prize of them all! The results of this contest will go live on Monday.

But for now, here are our overall predictions. Please feel free to play along at home!

2016 SAG Awards Winners

Best Original Song

“Earned It” from Fifty Shades of Grey – 50 points
“Manta Ray” from Racing Extinction – 70 points
“Simple Song #3” from Youth – 20 points
“Til It Happens to You” from The Hunting Ground – 310 points
“Writing’s on the Wall” from Spectre – 50 points

In a category filled with songs that nobody seems to truly love, the social importance of “Til It Happens to You” gave it an edge over the competition (although most of the team split their votes to hedge their bets because this is one funky category this year).


Best Cinematography

Ed Lachman, Carol – 20 points
Robert Richardson, The Hateful Eight
John Seale, Mad Max: Fury Road – 45 points
Emmanuel Lubezki, The Revenant – 380 points
Roger Deakins, Sicario – 55 points

Although the great Roger Deakins and the John Seale received some love, the team seems to be in total agreement  – Emmanuel Lubezki is about to win his third Academy Award in a row.


Best Documentary Feature

Amy – 255 points
Cartel Land – 50 points
The Look of Silence – 195 points
What Happened, Miss Simone?
Winter on Fire: Ukraine’s Fight for Freedom

Amy was the ultimate favorite to win, but The Look of Silence pulled a strong second place showing. Interestingly, this showdown mirrors the documentary race from 2014, when The Act of Killing (The Look of Silence‘s predecessor) was defeated by the musically-themed 20 Feet From Stardom.


Best Costume Design

Sandy Powell, Carol – 60 points
Sandy Powell, Cinderella – 10 points
Paco Delgado, The Danish Girl – 100 points
Jenny Beavan, Mad Max: Fury Road – 130 points
Jacqueline West, The Revenant – 200 points

Every nominee received some attention from the team, but the overall favorite ended up being The Revenant. But don’t completely count out the fantastical outfits of Mad Max: Fury Road or the historical costumes of The Danish Girl.


Best Sound Editing

Mad Max: Fury Road – 315 points
The Martian
The Revenant – 185 points
Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Since it is has the most volume per minute of any nominee, Mad Max walked away with the most points here (but almost everyone prepared for a potential The Revenant upset).


Best Sound Mixing

Bridge of Spies
Mad Max: Fury Road – 290 points
The Martian
The Revenant – 210 points
Star Wars: The Force Awakens

See sound editing.


Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Mad Max: Fury Road – 250 points
The 100-Year Old Man Who Climbed Out the Window and Disappeared
The Revenant – 250 points

With the vote equally split between The Revenant and Mad Max, your guess is as good as ours. Meanwhile, The 100-Year Old Man Who Climbed Out the Window and Disappeared is just happy to be here.

2015 top 10 inside out

Best Animated Feature

Anomalisa – 80 points
Boy and the World
Inside Out – 420 points
Shaun the Sheep Movie
When Marnie Was There

Although a few members of the team set aside some points just in case Anomalisa pulls an upset, everyone mostly agreed that Inside Out has this one completely locked down.


Best Supporting Actor

Christian Bale, The Big Short
Tom Hardy, The Revenant
Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight – 70 points
Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies – 20 points
Sylvester Stallone, Creed – 410 points

Sylvester Stallone is the sentimental favorite in a fairly contentious category, which gives him an edge over Mark Ruffalo and Mark Rylance.


Best Supporting Actress

Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight – 50 points
Rooney Mara, Carol – 60 points
Rachel McAdams, Spotlight
Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl – 230 points
Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs – 160 points

This is probably the most contentious major category at this year’s Academy Awards  – you put all of your points behind one nominee at your own peril. The only nominee to receive no points was Rachel McAdams (her part is the least flashy and therefore, least likely to win) while Alicia Vikander pulled ahead of Kate Winslet to become our favorite to win…although we’re going to pretend that her eventual victory is for Ex Machina instead.


Best Visual Effects

Ex Machina
Mad Max: Fury Road – 230 points
The Martian
The Revenant – 130 points
Star Wars: The Force Awakens – 140 points

This was another fairly split vote, with Mad Max‘s celebrated blend of practical and digital effects ultimately gaining the edge over the competition. But if members of the the Academy want to give Star Wars: The Force Awakens something, it could steal a victory here. If The Revenant ends up sweeping technical categories (which is a strong possibility), it may snatch this trophy away as well.


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