The Conjuring: Last Rites Is Ending The Franchise - Can It Go Out On A High Note At The Box Office?

For more than a decade, The Conjuring Universe has delivered hit after hit for Warner Bros., with horror fans flocking to each chapter in the massive horror franchise based on paranormal investigators Ed and Lorraine Warren. It's become a $2 billion box office juggernaut and a crown jewel of WB's media empire. But all good things must come to an end, and "The Conjuring: Last Rites" is being billed as an end — at least for the main series of films. The question is, can the promise of a conclusion to the Warren's paranormal adventures allow the franchise to go out on a high note?

When "Last Rites" opens in theaters next weekend over the Labor Day holiday, it's expected to bring in between $32 and $39 million domestically, per Box Office Theory. That's right in line with earlier tracking, which had the fourth main "Conjuring" film pulling in between $35 and $40 million (via Deadline). Even on the low end, that's a promising start for the film, which sees "The Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It" director Michael Chaves back in the saddle.

For one thing, Warner Bros. has always kept the budgets reasonable for these pictures, never exceeding $40 million. There's no reason to believe they went overboard this time around. It's also worth pointing out that these movies tend to play very well overseas. Director James Wan's "The Conjuring" made $319.4 million worldwide in 2013, with $182 million of that money coming from international ticket sales. So an over/under $40 million domestic opening is just the tip of the iceberg.

Vera Farmiga and Patrick Wilson reunite one last time as renowned Ed and Lorraine Warren with another tale based on their case files. The tagline labels this as "the case that ended it all," with that case being the Smurl haunting of 1986. The Warrens allegedly encountered multiple entities in the home which was later documented in a book titled "The Haunted."

Though reviews have not yet dropped for "Last Rites," critical opinion hasn't always been important to this particular franchise. The first "Annabelle" made $257 million at the box office against a mere $6 million budget despite critics not being particularly kind to the movie, to put it lightly. The same could be said for "The Nun," which made $366 million worldwide and remains the highest-grossing entry in The Conjuring Universe to date.

That said, audiences do seem to hold the main "Conjuring" movies to a slightly higher standard. If critics are on the movie's side, that could easily help push its opening to the higher end of projections. We've also seen that big-budget horror is having one hell of a year, with "Sinners" ($365.8 million worldwide), "Final Destination Bloodlines" ($287.1 million), "28 Years Later" ($150 million worldwide), and "Weapons" ($204 million worldwide so far) all doing huge business. It should be lost on nobody that three of those movies hail from Warner Bros.

WB is on a record-breaking streak, with its last six movies making at least $40 million on opening weekend. That list includes "A Minecraft Movie" ($162.7 million), "Sinners" ($48 million), "Final Destination Bloodlines" ($51.6 million), "F1" ($57 million), "Superman" ($125 million), and "Weapons" ($43.5 million). At the top end of projections, "Last Rites" has the opportunity to keep that record-breaking streak alive.

Working even more in the movie's favor is the fact that August has boasted a very weak slate. We'll be coming off of a weekend that included no marquee releases, instead focusing on more niche titles such as "Caught Stealing," "The Roses," and "The Toxic Avenger" remake. Audiences will be ready to turn up for something worth getting off the couch for. There will be virtually nothing by way of meaningful competition and, optimistically, there could be pent-up demand. It's all a recipe for a potential big opening, which theater owners are certainly hoping for.

"The Conjuring: Last Rites" hits theaters on September 5, 2025.