Can Migration Overcome Its Rough Opening Weekend And Become An Animated Box Office Hit?
The 2023 Christmas season was a crowded one at the box office. "Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom," the rom-com "Anyone But You," and A24's acclaimed wrestling drama "The Iron Claw" all opened heading into the weekend, with "The Color Purple," Michael Mann's "Ferrari," and George Clooney's "The Boys in the Boat" arriving on Christmas Day. Moviegoers had plenty to choose from. Amidst all of this, Universal and Illumination unleashed an original animated film in the form of "Migration." Unfortunately, it didn't make as big of a splash as many in the industry were hoping it would.
Director Benjamin Renner's "Migration" had to settle for third place on its opening weekend behind "Aquaman" ($27.7 million) and "Wonka" ($18 million), taking in $12.4 million, per The Numbers. When adding in its Christmas haul, the film's domestic total stands at $17.8 million. It has also pulled in $21.9 million overseas thus far, giving it a running total just shy of $40 million against a $72 million budget. Fortunately, Illumination managed to be thrifty with this one, which certainly helps its case. The question now is, can this family-friendly animated film bounce back in the coming weeks and become a hit despite the disappointing start?
In the pandemic era, original cinema of any kind has been struggling, that much is certain. Horror is just about the only genre that can provide filmmakers and studios an opportunity to capitalize on an original idea, with "Smile" and "M3GAN" serving as a couple of examples. Even a company as mighty as Illumination — the studio that brought us "Minions" and this year's monster success "The Super Mario Bros. Movie" – is now struggling to deliver an original hit. That is, at least in the early going. Hope remains.
A lack of competition and good word of mouth
"Migration" was written by Mike White, of "The White Lotus" fame, and centers on the Mallard family. The birds are in a rut as Mack, their dad, is happy to keep his family safe in their New England pond, while their mom Pam wants to shake things up and see the world. After a migrating duck family arrives on their pond with tales of elsewhere, Pam convinces Mack to embark on a family trip to Jamaica. However, as the Mallards make their way south for the winter, their plans quickly go awry.
The movie has an A CinemaScore working in its favor, suggesting good word of mouth in the coming weeks. Beyond that, it has almost nothing by way of direct competition. There are no other big animated movies in theaters right now, save for "The Boy and the Heron," but that's not truly competing for the same audience. Yes, "Wonka" is a big hit and is certainly family-friendly, but for audiences that aren't interested in a live-action musical, this is the best remaining choice and will be for some time.
Looking ahead, we don't have another new, studio-produced animated movie hitting theaters until "Kung Fu Panda 4" arrives in March. The only other competition in that space will be Disney's re-releases of Pixar's "Soul," "Luca," and "Turning Red." That could give the film a clear runway to sort of win out by default, especially since the early part of the 2024 release calendar is pretty barren thanks to the WGA and SAG-AFTRA strikes that dragged on for months. So these mallards are not dead in the water just yet — not by a long shot.
A reversal of fortune is in the cards
Pixar's "Elemental" became the first original animated theatrical hit in some time when it debuted earlier this year. Like "Migration," it had a less-than-stellar opening weekend, arriving against a wave of competition, and seemed dead on arrival. It then legged out in ways we didn't think were possible anymore, finishing with $496 million worldwide. It's not only the biggest original animated film of the pandemic era, it's the biggest original Hollywood movie of any kind. That's the first reason Illumination and Universal should remain optimistic here.
Beyond that, Universal released "Puss in Boots: The Last Wish" in December 2022, and, in an eerie similarity, that film opened to just $12.4 million domestically. Under identical circumstances (a lack of family movies and good reviews), it legged out to $185 million domestically and $484 million worldwide, capping off one of the most impressive box office runs in recent memory. Even if we want to be less hyperbolic about the movie's prospects, Illumination's "The Bad Guys" opened to $24 million and wound up finishing with $250 million worldwide last year. There are paths forward here, to be certain.
Also working in the movie's favor is the fact that there wasn't a clear breakaway hit on the level of "Spider-Man: No Way Home" or "Avatar: The Way of Water" this month. That could open the door for some of these other titles to keep pulling in audiences week after week, particularly this one. The A-list cast (which includes Kumail Nanjianai, Elizabeth Banks, Awkwafina, and Danny DeVito) will keep making the rounds to promote it, and audiences are likely to talk about it heading into the new year. So yeah, it was a rough start, but a reversal of fortune would not be all that surprising.
"Migration" is in theaters now.