Can Gran Turismo Deliver Neill Blomkamp's First Real Box Office Hit Since District 9?
Director Neill Blomkamp burst onto the scene all the way back in 2009 with "District 9." 14 years later, it remains one of the most beloved feature directorial debuts in recent memory — if not ever. The problem for Blomkamp is that he's yet to have an unqualified hit ever since his first film became a smash, taking in $210 million worldwide against a $30 million budget, en route to a Best Picture Oscar nomination. But Blomkamp is getting another shot at the big time with his latest film, "Gran Turismo." Part video game adaptation, part biopic, the filmmaker is looking to break his mixed bag of a streak. Can this be the movie to get the job done?
Box Office Pro currently has "Gran Turismo" taking in anywhere between $17 and $22 million on its opening weekend domestically. The movie was initially supposed to come out much earlier in August but was pushed back a couple of weeks by Sony Pictures at the 11th hour. A big part of that had to do with the fact that the studio needed to find a way to effectively promote the racing flick, which stars David Harbour ("Stranger Things") and Orlando Bloom ("The Lord of the Rings"). So, they have a couple of weeks' worth of sneak preview screenings before a more meaningful rollout at the end of August.
The problem is that the Writers Guild of America and the Screen Actors Guild are still on strike and have been for weeks. Members of both of those bodies cannot promote their work currently. As a result, movies coming out right now do not have the benefit of an extensive press tour with the stars making the rounds, be it on talk shows or online publications. Those press tours do a lot to get a movie in front of the average moviegoer than many folks may realize.
Is the budget going to be a problem?
A lack of press undoubtedly impacts the bottom line. Hence, the last-minute release date shift. The biggest question — as it always is with these things — is how much Sony spent on it. $100 million has been floated as the budget but that has yet to be confirmed. That would be in line with 2019's "Ford v Ferrari" ($97.6 million budget/$225.5 million box office) and they are comparable in scope. In that case, the movie didn't make quite enough in theaters alone to justify the price tag, but the fact that it scored a Best Picture nomination at the Oscars helped add value in another way. Such critical heights seem out of reach for "Gran Turismo."
The movie is based on a true story about a gamer (Archie Madekwe) who is very good at the game "Gran Turismo" and gets the chance to actually become a racecar driver. Critics have been a bit mixed on it, with the film holding a 59 percent critical approval rating on Rotten Tomatoes. You can read /Film's 4 out of 10 review right here. More importantly though, Blomkamp's latest holds a stellar 98 percent audience score. That, oftentimes, is a better indicator of a film's financial prospects.
If the $100 million budget is correct, Sony would probably need the movie to make between $250 and $300 million to break even. For what it's worth, the film is off to a slow start overseas, having earned $10.7 million from several overseas markets during its initial rollout. It's going to take a lot of positive word of mouth and genuine buzz to help push this movie near the break-even mark.
Neill Blomkamp needs a win
As far as competition goes, "Blue Beetle" and "Strays" will be in their second weekends, with "The Equalizer 3" set to follow in the first weekend of September. Things get a bit more crowded when "My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3" and "The Nun II" open on September 8. There's not overly stiff competition, but certainly not a barren wasteland either. Audiences will have plenty of choices.
Racing movies tend to have a low-ish ceiling outside of the "Fast & Furious" or "Cars" franchises. Ron Howard's "Rush" made $96.9 million a decade ago against a $38 million budget. Perhaps the better comparison is 2014's "Need for Speed," another racing movie based on a video game, which made $203.2 million worldwide against a $66 million budget. Admittedly, it would be far better for "Gran Turismo" if it was closer to that movie's budget, but we've seen far too many overly expensive movies hit theaters this year to believe Sony was thrifty with this one.
For Blomkamp, the filmmaker truly needs a win. His follow-up to "District 9," 2013's big-budget sci-fi flick "Elysium," made a respectable $286 million globally, but cost a hefty $120 million to produce. It got worse from there as 2015's "Chappie" was a critical disaster as well, taking in just $105 million worldwide against a $49 million budget. His most recent movie, 2021's "Demonic," was another critical flop, but a very low-budget one that was mostly a VOD play. In short, it's been a long time since he's had an explosive success. Is 2023 the year Blomkamp gets back on the right track? We'll know soon enough.
"Gran Turismo" hits theaters on August 25, 2023.