The Biggest Casualty Of Barbenheimer Was Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning
It was, without exaggeration, one of the biggest weekends in the history of the box office. The epic showdown between "Barbie" and "Oppenheimer" was everything moviegoers and the industry alike wanted to see, with both films delivering, collectively, the biggest weekend we've seen since "Avengers: Endgame" debuted in 2019. "Barbie" ran away with the win, taking in $162 million domestically, while "Oppenheimer" debuted to $82 million. In both cases, we're looking at better-than-expected results. All the while, "Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny," "Insidious: The Red Door," and "Elemental" held relatively well, all things considered. There was, however, one movie left out in the cold, with Tom Cruise's "Mission: Impossible — Dead Reckoning Part One" falling off a cliff amidst all the Barbenheimer chaos.
Despite topping the charts last week with $235 million globally across its first five days of release, the latest "Mission: Impossible" film fell all the way to fourth place on the charts in its sophomore outing. Yes, much of that had to do with Greta Gerwig's "Barbie" and Christopher Nolan's "Oppenheimer" taking up a lot of oxygen. But Angel Studios' surprise faith-based hit "Sound of Freedom" actually claimed the number three spot on the charts, adding $19.8 million to its ever-growing total in its third weekend, per The Numbers. That left Cruise's latest adventure as Ethan Hunt in fourth place with $19.5 million domestically, representing a brutal 64% decline compared to last weekend.
The good news is that director Christopher McQuarrie's spy flick has continued to perform well overseas, taking in another $55 million from 72 markets. We've also yet to get the initial results from the film's release in Japan, which should help as well. 2018's "Fallout" earned $42.4 million in the country, for comparison's sake. When your movie has a damningly high $300 million budget, every penny counts.
Overseas moviegoers to the rescue?
Part of the reason the "Mission: Impossible" movies have performed so well in recent years is that they've tended to hold on week to week. "Fallout," for example, declined just 42% in its second weekend, while "Rogue Notion" dropped 49%, but proceeded to hold like gangbusters from that point on. But that is also only one part of a much larger picture, as these movies tend to have an outsized audience overseas. Now, it appears as though the studio is going to be relying more than ever on a massive turnout from international audiences to keep "Dead Reckoning Part One" from becoming a financial failure. In fairness, even under the best of circumstances, it was always going to be an uphill battle with that budget.
As it stands, "Dead Reckoning" has earned $370.8 million globally, with about 68% of that total ($252.1 million) coming from overseas audiences. If the split finishes around 30% domestic and 70% international, the way things are going, we are probably looking at a finish in the ballpark of $700 million. If things somehow go very well in spite of the major competition, it could be closer to $750 million.
It seems unlikely that the movie will surpass "Fallout" ($786 million worldwide), and it's also unlikely that Paramount will manage to turn a profit during the theatrical run. Still, if they can somehow reduce the budget for "Part Two," which is currently set to hit theaters next summer, things may balance out in the end. One thing is certain: losing those IMAX screens to "Oppenheimer" really hurt Paramount's bottom line on this one.
"Mission: Impossible — Dead Reckoning Part One" is now in theaters.