Barbie Vs Oppenheimer: Breaking Down The Biggest Box Office Showdown Of The Year
Generally speaking, studios will try to keep big movies out of one another's way. After all, nobody wins if two releases cannibalize the same audience. But every once in a while, two very big movies do open on the same day, making for a memorable box office showdown. This summer, we have one of the biggest ones in recent memory with "Barbie" vs. "Oppenheimer" dominating the conversation online in recent weeks. The question is, can both of these big-budget films succeed at once? Perhaps, but there is going to be a very clear winner.
Director Greta Gerwig's "Barbie," which stars Margot Robbie in the lead role, is absolutely going to win the battle on opening weekend, and it's probably not going to be remotely close. Box Office Pro currently has the film set to open between $115 and $155 million. That's superhero movie money right there, and well above initial projections, which had the film coming in around $80 million on opening weekend. Clearly, things are trending up in a big way.
Meanwhile, director Christopher Nolan's biopic "Oppenheimer," which has Cillian Murphy leading an A-list ensemble, is looking to settle for second place with a projected debut anywhere between $40 and $57 million. That may be a far cry from what Universal had in mind when they landed the rights to distribute the film, ending Nolan's long relationship with Warner Bros. Then again, the studio wasn't anticipating competition of this caliber. Surprisingly enough, Nolan, the man who made "The Dark Knight," finds himself an underdog here.
Gerwig vs. Nolan
Large swaths of the internet have embraced both sides of the showdown, with a great many moviegoers gladly planning their "Barbenheimer" double features. In a way, this is great for the industry in a summer when many big movies have underdelivered. "The Flash" is the shining example, but "Elemental" and "Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny" are also in that camp. So for both the studios and theaters, having two big films from two beloved directors drawing audiences in at the same time could be a good thing.
Unfortunately, it seems like the more expensive movie is actually on the wrong end of the equation here. Nolan recently spoke with Variety at the London premiere for "Oppenheimer" and said, "It's a 180-page script and it's a $180 million movie." While that's not an official budget, it sure sounds like it was a lot more expensive than the original $100 million estimates indicated. On the other side, Warner Bros. is said to have spent $100 million on "Barbie" before marketing. For what it's worth, the marketing campaign has been wild and impressive — which means it was probably expensive too.
But if "Oppenheimer" really did cost $180 million, it would need extremely long legs and a ton of help from overseas audiences to break even. You would probably be looking at a $500 million (give or take) break-even point for Universal. Meanwhile, "Barbie" is going to be set up for success even if it comes in on the lower end of projections. If it continues to ramp up in the final days leading up to the release? The gap between the two could widen even further.
Ideally, everyone wins
Ideally, everyone is going to win. "Barbie" is going to become one of the biggest hits of the summer, while "Oppenheimer" can be a slow-burn hit in its own right that stays in the conversation through awards season. It's a tough ask for audiences to show up for both of these movies at a time when nothing seems certain in the movie business anymore. But rather than move off of that date, Universal and Warner Bros. opted for a showdown. The studios previously faced off 15 years ago when "The Dark Knight" ($1 billion worldwide) opened directly against "Mamma Mia!" ($609 million worldwide). In that case, both movies made bank and everyone walked away happy.
The long-term impact of both movies succeeding would be pretty wonderful, as it would encourage studios to get creative with counterprogramming, allowing for more big movies to exist at the same time. Granted, that relies on good movies being made but, in this case, the response has been very positive in the early going. So it's really just a matter of making sure both movies find their audience, as the industry truly needs that to happen.
"Barbie" and "Oppenheimer" both hit theaters on July 21, 2023.