While the Golden Globes are inexplicably popular and many critics’ circle awards are a good indicator of what consensus is building for awards season, the various screen guild awards are the best indicator of where Oscar is likely to go each year. One of the biggest guilds is the Screen Actors Guild (SAG), which this morning announced its nominations for achievements in 2010.

The Screen Actors Guild Awards will be given out on January 30, 2011. The full list of nominees is after the break.

The lack of nods toward Inception continues to be interesting, but there’s no surprise that The Fighter is turning into the strongest contender against The King’s Speech. (Four nominations each in this case.) Nice to see Black Swan, 127 Hours and True Grit getting some nods, and I”m very happy that Robert Duvall’s performance in Get Low was acknowledged. And the spot that some would have pegged for Halle Berry in Frankie and Alice went to Hilary Swank’s work in Conviction. That’s interesting.

You can find the TV nominations soon at the SAG Awards website. Here are the motion picture nominations:

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
Christian Bale, The Fighter
John Hawkes, Winter’s Bone
Jeremy Renner, The Town
Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are Alright
Geoffrey Rush, The King’s Speech

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
Amy Adams, The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter, The King’s Speech
Mila Kunis, Black Swan
Melissa Leo, The Fighter
Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Lead Role
Jeff Bridges, True Grit
Robert Duvall, Get Low
Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
Colin Firth, The King’s Speech
James Franco, 127 Hours

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Lead Role
Anette Bening, The Kids Are Alright
Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole
Jennifer Lawrence, Winter’s Bone
Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Hilary Swank, Conviction

Outstanding Performance by the Cast of a Motion Picture
Black Swan
The Fighter
The Kids Are Alright
The King’s Speech
The Social Network

Outstanding Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture:
Green Zone
Robin Hood

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