'Frozen 2' Box Office Tracking: Disney's Sequel Targets A Cool $100 Million Opening

About a month ago, early Frozen 2 box office tracking numbers suggested that the highly-anticipated Walt Disney Animation sequel was on pace for a huge $145 million opening weekend. But if Disney executives are feeling a shudder up their spines this morning, it may not just be because today is Halloween – they may have just seen the most recent tracking numbers, which instead suggest that Frozen 2 is on track for something closer to a $100 million opening. Looks like Disney may have to take that hope for a much more impressive opening and...*dons sunglasses*...let it go.

Frozen 2 Box Office Tracking

New numbers have arrived courtesy of Deadline, which says the sequel "is poised to do $100M, maybe even more" when it opens next month. But that's a far cry from $145 million, which was on the higher end of the expectations from just four and a half weeks ago. So what accounts for the downgrade? The early report came from BoxOfficePro, so perhaps they're using a different data tracking projection than Deadline uses.

Regardless, I don't think Frozen 2 (or, as Disney has stylized the title, Frozen II) has much to worry about when it comes to the box office. I got an early look at the sequel late last month and was very impressed with what I saw, and its release date in the pre-Thanksgiving slot practically insures that tons of families are going to head out to see it after they've stuffed themselves with turkey. Plus, there's been very little marketing so far aside from a couple of trailers; I suspect we're about to be inundated with TV spots so every kid in America will know this movie is on the way. Shed no tears for Disney in this situation.

The first Frozen didn't have a massive opening weekend compared to some other modern blockbusters, but it does still have the best Thanksgiving five-day opening of all time with $93.5M. And its success didn't plateau there and drop off: it ultimately pulled in over $400 million domestically and $1.27 billion worldwide. Those are strong enough numbers that it's still wearing the crown as the highest grossing animated movie of all time if you don't count Jon Favreau's The Lion King (and even Favreau doesn't seem to think you should). The movie also won two Oscars: Best Animated Feature and Best Original Song for "Let It Go," which was so overplayed that it became annoying but has now swung all the way back around for me again into the jam it always was.

Frozen 2 hits theaters on November 22, 2019.