'Tron Legacy' Tracking Below Box Office Expectations?

How much is Tron: Legacy going to make at the box office? Walt Disney Pictures clearly believes they not only have a hit, but a franchise. They're already developing a sequel, an animated television series and theme park rides based on the property.

But THR is reporting that "preliminary surveys conducted by Hollywood tracking firms" suggest that the film could "earn as little as $35 million during its first three days." If the movie doesn't make at very least $50 million on opening weekend, it will surely be declared a disaster. Estimates project that over $200 million has been spent on the film thus far. Of course, tracking estimates are not always accurate (although they are close more times than not).

I can't imagine the film possibly doing a number as low as $35 million, especially with all the 3D and IMAX surcharges attached to the ticket prices. Most of the people I talk to on a day to day basis are very excited for Tron Legacy. I live in a bubble of film publicity in the land they call Hollywood, so its hard not to be bombarded by promotion for this movie. But what about middle America?

I was at Disneyland California a couple weeks back. At the park they have a cross promotional dance party event called ElecTRONica, complete with Flynn's Arcade and 3D Tron Legacy preview footage. They've basically transformed a whole section of the park to resemble the Tron grid — it's very impressive in person. I was walking behind a family, clearly of Southern descent. The 10-12 year old boy asked his mother "What's that for?" The mother looked over and said "I think it's for some video game." Of course, one family is no indication of the entire country, but I still found it interesting.

Who knows what might happen to the company's future line-up if Tron doesn't deliver. I hope that Tron Legacy does well. I'm excited for Disney films like Fincher's 20,000 Leagues Under the Sea and Joseph Kosinski's Black Hole remake. It sure beats movies like The Smurfs and Yogi Bear: The Movie, that's for sure.

Discuss: What is your prediction for Tron Legacy's opening weekend domestic box office?