Does A Golden Globe Win Hurt Heath Ledger's Oscar Chances?

As you all know by now, Heath Ledger won the Best Performance by an Actor In A Supporting Role Award at last night's Golden Globes. Does this mean that Ledger is a shoe in for an Academy Award? Actually, that's actually a misconception. While Heath's win probably solidifies the fact that he will be nominated and in contention, history has shown that Academy members tend to disagree with the Hollywood foreign press.

Over the course of the last 20 years, only 55% of Golden Globe Supporting Actors went on to take the Supporting Actor Oscar. Also, as BadandUgly points out, If Ledger wins the Oscar, he would be the first posthumous Academy Award won by an actor since Peter Finch for Network in 1976.

I'm not saying Heath doesn't deserve the Oscar (if you've been reading my stuff for a while, you know I believe he does). And I'm also not saying that he won't win the Oscar. I'm just saying that the Golden Globe win doesn't not solidify a win as some people have been saying.