The Hunger Games Emerges As The Surprise Victor Of 2023's Thanksgiving Box Office
The most exciting thing about the Hunger Games, citizens of the Capitol would probably argue, is that anyone can win. The first "Hunger Games" movie saw the strongest, fastest tributes, who had volunteered for the games and specifically trained for them, outranked by Peeta Mellark, whose main skill was disguising himself as a rock.
2023's Thanksgiving box office brawl has been similarly thrilling, even if there haven't been any violent deaths (yet). Though "The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes" was expected to be ousted by Disney's "Wish," it's now on track to keep the No. 1 spot for a second weekend.
"Songbirds & Snakes" got off to quite a muted start last weekend, with a franchise-low $44.6 million opening, but it has held strong amid a rush of new releases from studios eager to capitalize on the holiday box office. The "Hunger Games" prequel grossed a combined $13.2 million over Wednesday and Thursday and added another $11.4 million on Friday. Over the traditional three-day box office weekend it's expected to drop just 40% from its opening (per Variety), and it will easily win the five-day Thanksgiving frame with an estimated total of $40 million (per The Hollywood Reporter).
"The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes" is now in with a shot at grossing $100 million in its first 10 days at the domestic box office, which would match its reported $100 million production budget quite nicely. Factoring in the cost of distribution and marketing, it probably needs to make around $300 million worldwide to be considered a modest commercial success for Lionsgate. But if these strong legs continue over the rest of the holiday season, that's certainly doable.
Beating the odds
There are two key factors in "The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes" winning a surprise sophomore victory. One is the movie itself outperforming expectations; Box Office Pro was projecting a $29.8 million total over the five-day Thanksgiving holiday, and it's come close to matching that in its first three days alone. The clincher, though, is Disney's new animated feature "Wish," which was forecast to top the Thanksgiving box office, falling significantly short of those projections. Though it was expected to score a five-day debut in the range of $49-66 million, "Wish" is now on track to gross just $32-33 million and is battling Ridley Scott's "Napoleon" for second place.
"The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes" received only a B+ CinemaScore from audience polling and has fairly mixed reviews from critics (65% on Rotty T's), but it may have succeeded in reigning interest in the dystopian world of Panem created by author Suzanne Collins. It helps that the movie is a departure from the original quadrilogy. Instead of featuring another heroic protagonist like Katniss Everdeen, it's an origin story for the main villain of "The Hunger Games" — President Coriolanus Snow (played by Donald Sutherland in last four movies, and now in his younger iteration by Tom Blyth). And instead of a traditional Hollywood narrative of plucky rebels defeating an evil empire, it's an ominous tale about how the seeds of fascism are sown, told from the perspective of a future fascist dictator.
True antihero movies are a risk both creatively and commercially. There's a reason Venom got a good-guy makeover for his solo movies; audiences generally prefer their heroes to be, well, heroic. Though the current box office arc for "Songbirds & Snakes" is unlikely to get any sequels greenlit, it could encourage studios to take more chances on challenging, morally complex stories.