Can Apple's Napoleon Bring Ridley Scott And Joaquin Phoenix Box Office Glory?
Ridley Scott may be 85 years old but the prolific filmmaker behind such classics as "Alien" and "Gladiator" is showing absolutely no signs of slowing down. After releasing both "House of Gucci" and "The Last Duel" in 2021, Scott is back with a new film in the form of "Napoleon." Produced by Apple Studios, the film reunites the Oscar-winning filmmaker with fellow Oscar-winner Joaquin Phoenix ("Joker"), with the actor playing the title role as the famed French military leader. The question is, can the duo ride to box office glory on the back of this pricey historical epic?
Despite being produced by Apple, Sony Pictures is giving the movie a wide theatrical release before it eventually makes its way to Apple TV+. It will be opening during the Thanksgiving holiday giving it that oft-coveted Wednesday to Sunday stretch to make its money. Per Deadline, the film is currently tracking for a $24 million debut across the full five-day stretch. Disney's "Wish" is expected to take the top spot that weekend. Box Office Pro has the film in a similar range, with the three-day total pegged between $17 and $22 million, while they have the five-day range between $23 and $32 million.
Without getting into the complicated business of it all, that feels like it would be a win for this sort of movie in the pandemic era. Adult-skewing dramas haven't been hitting out of the park all that often over the past few years, though Christopher Nolan's "Oppenheimer" ($949 million worldwide) has offered hope that the narrative may be changing in 2023 and beyond. Mind you, this is also just the domestic numbers. The film will be getting a substantial rollout overseas as well. The budget is pegged at around $130 million, though some have said it is closer to $200 million. Obviously, the former figure would be far more preferable.
Can Ridley Scott break his bad historical epic streak?
"Napoleon" details the checkered rise and fall of the iconic French Emperor Napoleon Bonaparte. The film captures Bonaparte's relentless journey to power through the lens of his volatile relationship with his true love, Josephine while showcasing his visionary military and political tactics against the backdrop of some of his most infamous battles. Vanessa Kirby ("The Son," "Mission: Impossible: Dead Reckoning") also stars.
Quite frankly, Scott has not had a lot of luck with historical epics, particularly over the last decade. 2021's "The Last Duel" was the filmmaker's most recent crack at the genre and that was, to put it bluntly, an epic disaster. The film topped out at just $30 million worldwide against a hulking $100 million budget. Granted, the pandemic was a major factor there but this was a gargantuan flop. There's also 2014's "Exodus: Gods and Kings," which was another pretty big disappointment, taking in $268 million worldwide against a $140 million budget. Then there's 2010's "Robin Hood" which made a respectable $322 million, but its budget somehow ballooned to more than $200 million.
All of this to say, this genre has not been kind to Scott outside of "Gladiator" ($451 million worldwide/$103 million budget), even though he can be a very commercially viable filmmaker. We need look no further than "The Martian" ($653 million worldwide/$108 million budget) as proof of that. Fortunately, in this case, Apple's involvement and the unique, multi-faceted distribution strategy paves the way for a situation where the film doesn't have to earn what some of those other historical epics had to for them to be considered successful.
What's in it for Apple and Sony?
Apple is, first and foremost, a tech company that is worth billions and billions. Apple TV+ is a small part of the company's overall equation. Similar to Amazon with Prime Video, the company doesn't need these movies to profit in theaters. That's why they're letting Sony handle distribution and will pay them a fee for doing so. But what does Apple want out of it, if not profit from ticket sales?
With Ridley Scott at the helm and Joaquin Phoenix in the lead role, this feels like a movie poised for some Oscar nominations. It's also relatively audience friendly and, if word of mouth is good beyond opening weekend, it could do damn decent business. Critics have been a big mixed on it thus far. You can read /Film's 6 out of 10 review right here.
It could wind up in the same neighborhood as "House of Gucci" ($147 million worldwide), which opened to $14.4 million a couple of years back. That would be enough to help Apple offset the production cost while bringing a lot more attention to the streaming release (including Scott's much longer director's cut), all while likely earning some Oscar nominations. That appears to be a better business strategy than Netflix releasing a $200 million movie like Martin Scorsese's "The Irishman" with a hilariously minimal theatrical component, hoping that the value from subscriptions would alone be enough to justify the cost.
Speaking of Scorsese, this seems to be very similar to what Apple did with "Killers of the Flower Moon" recently. It's a very expensive, $200 million movie that got a wide theatrical release from Paramount and currently sits at $138 million worldwide. The movie won't get anywhere near a profit in theaters, but Apple never expected it to. They want some money back, they want it to be a hit on Apple TV+, and they'd like some awards season love. Scott's latest seems poised for a similar trajectory.
"Napoleon" is set to hit theaters on November 22, 2023.