Avatar: The Way Of Water Kicks Off Its Box Office Run With $17 Million In Thursday Previews
It has, astonishingly, been 13 years since "Avatar" was released and shattered box office records across the board. All these years later, it remains the highest-grossing movie of all time (even if it briefly surrendered the crown). At long last, James Cameron is back with his long-awaited follow-up, "Avatar: The Way of Water." And, while the jury is still out on whether or not it can get anywhere near the $2.92 billion of the original, we have some initial numbers that indicate things are looking up in the early going. Specifically, the Thursday preview numbers are in, and people turned up.
As per The Numbers, "The Way of Water" earned $17 million in Thursday preview screenings. That firmly falls into the "very good but maybe not record-breaking great" camp. For context, other movies that have opened with the same preview numbers include "The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 1" ($121.8 million opening weekend) and "Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2" ($146.5 million opening weekend). What remains to be seen is how front-loaded that number is, or if more people will turn up over the weekend for the movie, which runs over three hours. That certainly could have been a factor, though it didn't hurt "Avengers: Endgame," which did a record $60 million in previews back in 2019.
As it stands, Cameron's massive-budget sequel (said to be in the $350 to $400 million range) is eyeing a domestic debut of $150 to $175 million. Cameron has said personally that the movie needs to literally be one of the highest-grossing movies ever to be profitable. So, can it get there with numbers like that? It's certainly not out of the question.
How the numbers stack up
For one, analysts predict the movie will have a monstrous international debut, with the film looking at $550 million come Monday. What also helps is that "The Way of Water" is getting a robust release in China, where it is expected to earn $70 million or so by Monday. The problem is that COVID cases are rising in the country, which will impact ticket sales. Still, Disney is going to need every penny to justify the massive expense. Not to mention the plans Cameron has to make three more sequels, which already have release dates set.
As far as comparisons go, "Top Gun: Maverick" may be good to look at. Tom Cruise's sequel debuted to a great $126.7 million earlier this year, but then demonstrated incredible legs, eventually earning just shy of $1.5 billion globally, becoming one of the highest-grossing movies ever. It's worth remembering that the original "Avatar" opened to just $77 million in December 2009, but then had record-legs, topping the charts for seven weeks on its way to nearly $3 billion worldwide. With little blockbuster competition ahead, Cameron and Disney have a clear runway to rule the box office for weeks to come.
"Avatar: The Way of Water" is in theaters now.