Disney's Wish Was A Big Disappointment At The Box Office - But Don't Count It Out Yet
Walt Disney Animation Studios released its latest original film during the Thanksgiving holiday in the form of "Wish." In the lead-up to the release, it was presumed that Disney's latest was going to top the box office ahead of "The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes" and Ridley Scott's "Napoleon." That's not how things panned out. Instead, the animated musical had to settle for third place, coming in far below industry expectations. No two ways about it: in the early going, this is a rough start for a massive $200 million animated film. Be that as it may, it wouldn't be fair to count the movie out just yet.
"Wish" earned $19.5 million over the weekend and an estimated $31.7 million across the full, five-day holiday frame, per The Numbers. Disney opted to release the film mid-week on Wednesday to get in on the holiday bounty and, typically, that works out well. In this case, the studio's latest trailed "Napoleon" ($20.4 million) and "Hunger Games" ($28.8 million) in the Weeknd numbers. Heading into the week, "Wish" was expected to make $40 to $50 million on the conservative side of things during the Wednesday to Sunday stretch. It fell well short of that mark.
Internationally, things got off to a relatively slow start as well with the film opening to $17.3 million overseas, giving it a $49 million global start. That said, the film only opened in several major markets and has a global rollout that will continue throughout December. That's the first reason that it would be silly to count the movie out already, despite the rough opening weekend numbers. International audiences, by and large, have not yet had the chance to weigh in here. There are numerous examples of overseas markets rescuing a movie (just look at "Warcraft") and Disney's global reach is massive.
The Elemental effect
"Wish" centers on the sharp-witted Asha, who makes a wish so powerful that it is answered by a cosmic force called Star. Together, they must confront the ruler of Rosas, King Magnifico, to save her community. It's not lacking for star power as Ariana DeBose ("West Side Story") and Chris Pine ("Wonder Woman") lead the ensemble, with Chris Buck ("Frozen") co-directing alongside Fawn Veerasunthorn, who makes her feature directorial debut following her work on movies like "Raya and the Last Dragon" and "Zootopia."
At first glance, this looks like another blow for big-budget original cinema in the pandemic era. Disney (particularly via Pixar) was one of the most reliable studios when it came to delivering original hits pre-pandemic, despite the studio's reliance on franchises. However, those franchises originated from animated originals much of the time. That's why "Frozen 3" and "Frozen 4" are in the works as we speak. But let's not cry over spilled milk just yet as another Disney release from earlier this year suggests that "Wish" could still have a path to success.
Pixar's "Elemental" was released over the summer and, against a similarly big $200 million budget, opened to just $29 million and seemed dead on arrival. Yet, in the weeks that followed, even in the face of major competition, the film sprouted long legs, holding incredibly well week-to-week. It's now earned $495 million worldwide and stands as the ninth biggest movie of the year overall. It's one of the feel-good film industry stories of the year and one that suggests the right family-friendly movie can outperform traditional expectations. There are other paths to potential, long-term success as well.
The Encanto effect
Another interesting success story for Disney in the pandemic era is 2021's "Encanto." Yes, the movie topped out at $256.7 million worldwide against a sizable $150 million budget, meaning it didn't outright profit in theaters. But 1) that was when the pandemic was a much larger factor and 2) the movie became an absolute cultural sensation when it arrived on home video and streaming, driven by huge viewership on Disney+. Songs like "We Don't Talk About Bruno" became an unmistakable part of pop culture and the film felt like it broke through in a meaningful way. Even if it wasn't a theatrical success, it's a movie Disney was probably able to count as a win in the end, looking at the larger picture.
This is another potential path to relative success for "Wish." Disney can let it do its thing throughout the holidays and, even if it doesn't do "Elemental" numbers, it can make some of its money back before audiences discover it at home. If it can break out like "Encanto" did, it can be an earner for years to come via the soundtrack, merchandise sales, and other revenue streams. It certainly doesn't hurt that the movie carries a very good A- CinemaScore despite earning mixed reviews from critics (read our review here).
At the very least, it's certainly going to avoid becoming a gigantic bomb like last year's "Strange World." That ambitious Disney animated original topped out at just $73 million worldwide against a huge budget said to be as high as $180 million. It's one of the biggest theatrical disasters in recent memory. Fortunately a fate so grim will be avoided here. It's just a matter of whether or not this one can find legs in the weeks to come. Stay tuned.
"Wish" is in theaters now.