Bloodbath! At The Box Office As The Flash And Elemental Face Disappointing Debuts
Update, 6/18/23: "The Flash" crashed harder than expected. With Saturday's numbers in, the DC multiverse adventure is now looking at a three-day weekend of $55.1 million, rising to around $62-64 million over the four-day weekend (per The Hollywood Reporter). Meanwhile, "Elemental" is looking at a three-day weekend total of $29.5 million, the lowest debut for a Pixar movie since the original "Toy Story." Original article follows.
"Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse" continues to have a great time at the box office. In the third weekend of release it's set to gross another $28-29 million at the domestic box office over the three-day weekend, a drop of just 48 percent from last week despite fresh competition from two major new releases. Nice work, Spider-Man!
Okay, that's the good news out of the way. Now it's time for the bad news, and there's plenty of it.
Almost a decade after it was originally announced, and more than five years after its original planned release date, the DC Extended Universe entry "The Flash" has finally arrived in theaters. The movie spent so long in development hell that the DCEU doesn't actually exist any more (it's now called the DC Universe), and the box office numbers so far reflect the fact that Barry Allen has missed the boat. Per The Hollywood Reporter, "The Flash" is projected to gross $58-60 million over the three-day weekend, and $70 million or less over the four-day Juneteenth weekend.
That's not inherently a disaster. "Aquaman" had a modest $67 million opening weekend back in 2018, and ended up grossing more than $1 billion globally thanks to strong legs and enthusiastic overseas audiences. However, last year "Black Adam" opened at $67 million and failed to crack $400 million worldwide by the end of its run, and it seems likely that "The Flash" will head down "Black Adam" alley rather than taking the "Aquaman" expressway. The movie received a B CinemaScore from audience exit polling, has had mixed reviews from critics, and it probably doesn't help that its star has left a trail of troubling headlines behind them over the last few years.
A chilly start for Elemental
It's a sign of how things have fallen for Pixar that "Elemental" is battling for the No. 2 spot in its opening weekend against "Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse," which has been out for more than two weeks. Projections for the three-day weekend range from $28-32 million, and if "Elemental" opens on the lower end of those estimates it will be the all-time lowest debut for a Pixar movie.
Up until relatively recently, Pixar movies were titans of the box office; in 2019, "Toy Story 4" grossed more than $1 billion worldwide. But then the pandemic hit and Disney leaned hard on its then-freshly-launched streaming service, Disney+. Pixar's "Soul," "Luca," and "Turning Red" were all given direct-to-streaming releases. When Disney attempted a return to theaters with last year's "Lightyear," the movie bombed following a $50 million opening weekend.
Pixar's chief creative officer, Pete Docter, reflected on the pandemic release strategy in a recent interview with Variety. While acknowledging that the direct-to-streaming releases saved Pixar's movies from sitting on the shelf, Docter said that "there's been a bit of a mixed blessing because we've trained audiences that these films will be available for you on Disney+."
It's possible that things could turn around if "Elemental" holds strong over the coming weeks. DreamWorks' "Puss in Boots: The Last Wish" had an opening weekend of just $12 million, but became a sleeper hit that ultimately grossed $480 million worldwide by the end of its run. But in the midst of a busy summer slate of releases, the odds are in favor of "Elemental" fizzling out. Last weekend's big new release "Transformers: Rise of the Beasts" is projected to drop 68 percent, grossing just $19.1 million in its second weekend and getting knocked down from No. 1 to fourth place at the domestic box office.
It's a tough world out there, and only the spiders are thriving.