It's The Old Guard Versus The New Guard On Succession Season 4
This post contains spoilers for "Succession."
Logan Roy's body is still warm and yet the battle lines are already being drawn. With the succession question still very much unanswered, the Waystar Royco stock at an all-time low, and the impending sale of the company thrown up in the air, what will this game of chess look like without the king? Episode 3 of the show's fourth and final season definitely left the audience with a lot of uncertainty about the future of "Succession," but it did give us a few hints.
With the so-called American titan out of the picture, everyone's affiliations are in a state of flux. It seems that Logan's children are already suspicious of the late CEO's (mostly) trusted advisors, and both teams have immediately started working to claim or maintain control of the company. Will they fight to be named captain of a sinking ship, or will they try to cash out now that the will-o'-the-wisp of Logan's approval can no longer be chased? Let's break down who the major players are, which side they're on, and how likely they are to become the new CEO of Waystar.
New Guard: Kendall Roy
Kendall was the first choice to succeed his father in the early days of the series, and he was also the first one to lead the charge of rebellion against him when he wouldn't hand over the reins. He's the founder of the proto-new guard. He's been in the new guard since before it was cool, and he's definitely heralding in its next chapter.
In the immediate wake of his father's passing, Kendall tries to take charge of affairs. He snaps into boss mode and shouts commands at Jess and Frank before realizing there's nothing to be done, and that Logan is already gone. He volunteers to break the news to Connor and, when Shiv offers to support him, they hold hands. This suggests a newfound alliance with his siblings, a sense of camaraderie that wasn't there before, but also indicates that his business-shark side is still very much alive, even in the face of death.
The heir-apparently-not obviously still wants to take over the family business. If it wasn't already evident that he was still holding a torch for the top spot, it became abundantly clear in episode 2 of season 4. Kendall advocated joining Stewie and Sandy's efforts to push the GoJo sale back, even after their CEO assured him that he would walk away from the deal if he did so. Waystar not being sold means that Kendall still has a shot at running his father's kingdom — the very thing he's spent his whole life preparing for.
Old Guard: Gerri Kellman
Gerri has always played both sides of the fence, placing her more firmly on Team Gerri than either side of the aisle. In season 1 she helped Kendall organize a vote of no confidence against Logan but, when it was unclear if she'd picked a winning side, she abstained from the vote.
The interim CEO also recognizes her power over Roman and bends it to her advantage, putting up with his antics in exchange for his support and influence as Logan's son. No matter what side Roman was on, he confided in Gerri and she advised him accordingly. With Roman no longer in his father's ear, he is of no use to her, as she made abundantly clear when he tried to cry on her shoulder.
Logan once had so much faith in Gerri that he named her interim CEO when the cruises scandal hit and he was forced to step away from the public eye. But on his final day, Logan sent Roman to fire Gerri. In one fell swoop, Logan forced Roman to prove his loyalty to his father and to burn his psychosexual bridge with Gerri. The late CEO offers only a couple of flimsy reasons for this sudden change, and it enrages the typically cool-calm-and-collected Gerri.
Without Logan there to saddle the blame, she will have to direct her anger at Roman. It also leaves her position a little ambiguous — if the paperwork wasn't drawn up yet, is Gerri still the CEO? And, if she is, will she fight to keep the spot? It might require more vulnerability than we are used to seeing from her, but it will be difficult to resist the power grab. Her past with Roman could motivate a side-swap, or even a little double-agenting, but those days may be behind her now.
New Guard: Roman Roy
The youngest Roy son has always had trouble committing. He is attracted to newness and reactionary thought, but he was always swayed from subversion by his father. He has entertained joining Kendall's rebellion at every turn but inevitably ends up back at Logan's side each time. He is perhaps the most ideologically similar to his father, having inherited his ability for biting insults, but Roman also feared Logan more than any of his other siblings. Without Logan around, his allegiances may lie more firmly with Kendall.
As Kendall has repeatedly mentioned, Logan physically abused Roman, including in the season 2 episode "Argestes." At Tom's bachelor party, Roman recounts a "game" where he was forced by his older siblings to eat dog food in a cage, the psychological effects of which resulted in him being sent to military school. This was a calculated move by Logan, as Connor recalls: "You got two fighting dogs... you punish the weak one. Then everyone knows the hierarchy."
By stacking the odds against him, Logan recreated the most similar conditions of his own childhood for Roman. In a twisted way, this made Roman more similar to his father and more worthy of his respect. He also made Roman fearful and indecisive.
Although Roman was never promised the company like Kendall and Shiv, he thinly veiled his ambitions because he didn't think them possible. Now that it's out of his father's hands, maybe Roman has a better shot. Will that put him in competition with his siblings, or will he work with them? And if his newly formed alliance with Logan is revealed to Shiv and Kendall, can they trust their brother again? Without his dad looming over him, Roman is one of the most unpredictable players on the board.
Old Guard: Frank Vernon
Whenever Kendall takes up arms against Logan, it's likely that Frank isn't far behind him. His relationship with Logan was complex, and his connections to the divisive media titan's enemies made him a valuable asset. Still, if Logan never trusted Frank, then it's unlikely that the kids will either. Roman has always been outspoken about his dislike of the vice-chairman since his father often forced him to act as Frank's subordinate. It's also worth noting that Frank has stuck by Logan's side the last couple of seasons, placing him firmly in the old guard.
Despite his previous wishy-washiness, Frank seems firmly planted this go around. He probably didn't trust Logan to protect his best interests, but Gerri and Karl may be a more comfortable allegiance. Having seen Kendall's ineptitude firsthand, it's unlikely that he would want to see the company placed in his hands either. None of the Roy siblings have much confidence in Frank at this point, and it doesn't serve his best interests to form an alliance with them. It's clear from the way he reacts to Kendall's attempts to speak to the Waystar jet pilot that he views them as spoiled brats incapable of running a company. He more likely has faith in the people he's worked closely with for many decades.
New Guard: Shiv Roy
Shiv has been falling out with her father ever since he promised her the spot of CEO and ripped it away when she couldn't get the job done. She was brought back into the fold when Kendall became enemy number one, but her affiliations faltered almost immediately when it became clear that the company wouldn't be in her control any time soon. Her political background is liberal-leaning and in total ideological opposition to her family's news network. Will she want to stay attached to ATN, or is she more interested in moving the sale along and running the rival news network, Pierce?
Logan's only daughter had a complicated relationship with her father, complicated further by her brazenly naked ambition in the later seasons. She has argued in favor of keeping the company in the family since the earliest whispers of a sale, and it is likely that her sentimentality and ambition will motivate her to fight for the head seat at the Waystar table. It's clear that she's gotten more business-oriented lately, so perhaps she will do what Logan would have done: act in her own best interest, go with her gut, and do the wise thing. In this case, the wise thing might be to stick by her brothers, to avoid making the mistakes that Logan did in alienating his family, and to allow her siblings to round out her lack of business experience.
Old Guard: Karl Muller
Karl has been slowly moving into the spotlight (or, at least, spotlight-adjacent) over the past few seasons. We don't know a whole lot about Karl, other than that he has an affinity for sex workers and silly turns-of-phrase (see "butter my beanpole"). As CFO, he has a better handle on the company finances than anyone else, which could greatly inform his decision. It's possible that Karl will vie for CEO while the stock is down and desirability is low. Or, maybe, he will choose to abandon ship altogether — although that seems unlikely.
By drafting a statement with the other advisors on the plane, he solidifies his alliance with the old guard. A sneak peek of episode 4 hears him say that the Roy siblings are "not equipped to take on the role," so we know for certain that he is not advocating for any of them. The only question that remains is, will he back Gerri, or will he try to take the spot for himself? He's thrown his own name in the ring before, but if he realizes that Gerri has a better chance, maybe he'd be smartest to team up with her.
Undecided: Tom Wambsgans
Shiv's soon-to-be-ex-husband doesn't have a lot of friends left in the Roy family, and that number just went down by a very big and powerful one. Tom drew his line in the sand in the season 3 finale when Shiv threatened to turn on Logan and he tipped him off before she had the chance. Since then, he has become a trusted minion for Logan and completely estranged from Shiv. Now that Logan is dead, there doesn't seem to be a lot of hope for Tom to make his way back into the Roy siblings' good graces. But with the new guard shuttering him out, will the old guard take him in?
Tom appeals to Karl, Frank, and Gerri to consider him as the next CEO in episode 4, the teaser reveals. Tom has been gunning for the chair since season 1, and it makes sense for him to join up with the counterforce against the heir-more-apparents — but will they get behind him? He has a history of brutal management tactics and buffoonish public speaking, and soon he won't even have his marriage to Shiv as a playing card. Is there anything that Tom does have going for him? He'd better figure it out soon. But one thing's certain: if there's any hope for the boy from Saint Paul, it's in the old guard.
Old Guard: Karolina Novotney and Hugo Baker
The head of PR at Waystar is nothing short of a workhorse. She has a clear head for business and isn't swayed by emotional arguments. She made it clear in the season 3 premiere that she has no love for Kendall and no qualms about the sins of the old guard. Karolina alienated the Roy children further when she neglected to loop them in on the public-facing statement about their father's death right away. She was scribbling down a plan while the flight attendants were still doing chest compressions. Her robotic acumen may make her a bit tactless, but undoubtedly a powerful ally. With Karolina on their side, the old guard might have the upper hand.
Hugo is the head of PR for parks and cruises, so he and Karolina tend to come as a pair. The cruises department has been in hot water since season 2, so he has gotten quite a bit of airtime. It's unclear how much pull he has, but he probably knows some dark secrets about his department that could be used as leverage.
Like Karolina, Hugo hasn't made any major power moves yet, but he should not be underestimated. Having worked closely with Frank, Karl, and Gerri in recent years — and clearly getting on the siblings' nerves in the wake of their father's death — he will likely end up in the old guard. He's also antagonized Tom since he made such a clown of himself in D.C. so that animosity might come into play when the other members of the old guard consider who they want in the big chair.
Undecided: Greg Hirsch
The gangly Roy cousin has served a long sentence under Tom's wing, but one thing about unsuspecting, bumbling, "sweet" cousin Greg is: he knows how to bet a winning horse. He's shown time and time again that he will act in his own best interest, from his appeal to Logan in the series premiere to his copies of the incriminating Waystar papers to playing both sides of the fence in the Kendall vs. Logan war of season 3. With Uncle Fun out of the picture and Tom in a vulnerable position, Greg might finally break out on his own.
Logan's death wasn't quite as devastating for Greg as it was for the rest of the family, so he will probably start thinking about his own position more quickly and callously than the others. The sneak peek for episode 4 shows Greg attempting to make amends with the Roy siblings and secure his position in the new guard. Will they shun him for working with the enemy, or will they take him in? Maybe Greg will get his hands on that "logistics" file and use it as a weapon against Tom? If it is to be said, so it is.