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A Computer Has Predicted The Most Likely 'Game Of Thrones' Season 8 Deaths

Game of Thrones season 8 deaths
By Ben Pearson

We have to wait until 2019 to find out which characters are going to die in the next season of HBO's Game of Thrones...or do we?

A data scientist has crafted an algorithm that's crunched the numbers and predicted the most likely candidates to bite the dust in the upcoming eighth and final season, based on things like the characters' houses, their title, gender, and more. So what are the most likely Game of Thrones season 8 deaths? Read on to find out.

The Wrap points us to the website of a Boston-based company called DataRobot, where scientist Taylor Larkin has programmed an algorithm to use machine learning to predict which Game of Thrones characters will die as the show comes to a close.

Looking at approximately 2,000 detailed profiles of characters taken from A Wiki of Ice and Fire (which, it should be noted, focuses on George R.R. Martin's novels more than the HBO TV adaptation), Larkin catalogued "what house and culture a character belong to, their title, gender, nobility status, age, and if any of their relatives had died." Then he implemented something called a gradient boosting decision tree to analyze that data and predict the characters who probably won't make it to the final credits.

Here are the results:

  • Daenerys Targaryen – 83.77% chance of death
  • Jaime Lannister – 72.91% chance of death
  • Tyrion Lannister – 70.76% chance of death
  • Bran Stark – 66.02% chance of death
  • Cersei Lannister – 60.39% chance of death
  • Jon Snow – 58.99% chance of death
  • Euron Greyjoy – 54.95% chance of death
  • Sansa Stark – 50.28% chance of death
  • Arya Stark – 49.04% chance of death
  • Gendry – 39.87% chance of death

    • Before we get to the big names, let's take a look at some of the more supporting players. Gendry and Arya have the highest chance of survival here, and I can see that panning out. I feel like Arya is going to make it out alive, if only so she can spend the rest of her life grappling with the decisions she's made over the past few years. Euron Greyjoy has just over a 50% chance to die, but I would be shocked if that swaggering pirate comes out on the right side of that particular coin flip.

    Things aren't looking great for the Lannisters, but this data must not have taken Cersei's doomed prophecy into account – according to this, she only has a 60% chance of death, but I seriously doubt the books/show would set up a prophecy where she dies at the hands of her brother only to never circle back and fulfill that.

    Let's get into the big ones: Dany and Jon Snow. Jon seems like the destiny-driven hero of this series, having already been brought back from the dead once. Because of this, I'd love to see Martin (and the show) have Jon die unexpectedly, mirroring the death of another supposedly "safe" hero, Ned Stark,  at the end of season one. Dany, on the other hand...well, her having the highest chance of death makes a lot of sense. She's been through a lot, but her fiery, determined passion to take the Iron Throne at any cost may end up being the thing that brings her down in the end.

    We'll find out how accurate these predictions are when Game of Thrones returns to HBO in 2019. In the meantime, let us know if these algorithm-based predictions line up with your own thoughts about who's going to die in season 8.

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