Forgetting Sarah Marshall

Judd Apatow, Hollywood’s current king of raunchy comedy, is in a slump. After the critical and commercial successes of last Summer’s Superbad and Knocked Up, he could do no wrong, but then came the disastrous Walk Hard, and a few weeks ago,he unleashed another bomb as a producer, the poorly-received Drillbit Taylor. Now, along comes Forgetting Sarah Marshall (Universal), an extension of the Apatow R-rated raunchy comedy brand, and, despite excellent reviews, it’s finished a disappointing #2 for the weekend.

The weekend belongs to the inspired pairing of martial arts superstars Jackie Chan and Jet Li in Forbidden Kingdom (Lionsgate). The PG-13-rated family-friendly fable, received a 5% Saturday bounce for a $7.92M 2nd day. That should nudge the solidly-reviewed wide release to a $20.5M opening weekend. That would make it Chan’s all-time best non-Rush Hour opening, Jet Li’s all-time best non-Lethal Weapon opening and the 7th-best martial arts opening ever in the US.

That brings us to the under-performing Sarah Marshall, which needed a larger Saturday bounce to save face. Instead, it appears that the uptick was only 12%, giving the Jason Segal vehicle a $6.63M Saturday. I’m now projecting that Forgetting Sarah Marshall will wrap the weekend with $17M. That’s only the all-time 8th-best opening for a film with Judd Apatow’s fingerprints (see my Friday report for the full list). Sony has 3 Apatow projects on its summer release schedule, Don’t Mess with the Zohan, Step Brothers and Pineapple Express, so folks at that studio are hoping that the audience develops more of an “Ap-etite” for Apatow.

Thanks to its PG-13 rating, the decidedly less bloody Prom Night (Sony) continues to perform, adding $3.82M Saturday, and it’s headed for a $9.11M 2nd weekend. That pushes the slasher re-make past $32M domestic in 10 days. At #4, is the laughably bad 88 Minutes (Sony), starring Academy Award winner Al Pacino. The alleged thriller lurched to a $2.79M Saturday, and it’s opening 3-day will be a meager $6.9M. Fox’s family film Nim’s Island rounds out the Top 5 with $2.59M Saturday and an estimated $5.75M for the weekend.

One notable success has been the intelligent design doc Expelled: No Intelligence Allowed, featuring Ben Stein. Released on 1,000+ screens by the small Christian-based Rocky Mountain Pictures, this little doc picked up another $1.03M on Saturday, and it will finish the weekend with just under $3M. Not bad for a movie shot on a shoestring, released by a virtually unknown distributor and promoted very lightly.

Morgan Spurlock’s Where in the World is Osama Bin Laden (Weinstein) has failed to successfully followed up on his Oscar nominated hit Super Size Me. At just over 100 locations, the tongue-in-cheek doc will manage only $140,000 for the 3-day, which makes for a $1,373 Per Theatre Average. That’s less than half of the $2,800 PTA for Expelled, and Spurlock’s film is on 1/10 the number of screens.

The PTA crown has been taken by The Visitor (Overture Films). Starring veteran character actor Richard Jenkins, this specialty picture expanded to 18 locations, and Overture has been rewarded with a $7,389 weekend PTA. Director Tom McCarthy, who charmed audiences with The Station Agent a few years back, appears to have another indie hit in the making.

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS REVISED 3-DAY PTA ESTIMATES
1. The Visitor (Overture Films) – 18 locations – $7,389 PTA
2. The Forbidden Kingdom (Lionsgate) – 3,151 locations – $6,522 PTA
3. Forgetting Sarah Marshall (Universal) – 2,798 locations – $6,073 PTA
4. Ben X (Equinoxe) – 2 locations – $5,500 PTA
5. Constantine’s Sword (First Run) – 2 locations – $5,000 PTA
5. The Singing Revolution (Abramorama) – 1 location – $5,000 PTA
7. Young @ Heart (Fox Searchlight) – 33 locations – $3,485
8. Priceless (IDP Films) – 28 locations – $3,393
9. Prom Night (Sony) – 2,700 locations – $3,377 PTA
10. The Counterfeiters (Sony Classics) – $3,308 PTA

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY SATURDAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – The Forbidden Kingdom (Lionsgate) – $7.92M – $2,516 PTA – $15.47M cume
2. NEW – Forgetting Sarah Marshall (Universal) – $6.63M- $2,370 PTA – $12.55M cume
3. Prom Night (Sony) – $3.82M – $1,418 PTA – $30.7M cume
4. NEW – 88 Minutes (Sony) – $2.79M – $1,287 PTA – $5.11M cume
5. Nim’s Island (Fox) – $2.59M – $792 PTA – $31.3M cume
6. 21 (Sony) – $2.48M – $856 PTA – $68.7M cume
7. Street Kings (Fox) – $1.74M – $706 PTA – $18.9M cume
8. Horton Hears a Who (Fox) – $1.61M – $606 PTA – $143.4M cume
9. Leatherheads (Universal) – $1.41M – $506 PTA – $25.8M cume
10. NEW – Expelled: No Intelligence Allowed (Rocky Mountain Pictures) – $1.03M – $981 PTA – $2,23M cume
11. Superhero Movie (Weinstein/MGM) – $753,000 – $401 PTA – $23.1M cume
12. Smart People (Miramax) – $710,000 – $634 PTA – $6.4M cume
13. The Ruins (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $550,000 – $296 PTA – $15.5M cume
14. Drillbit Taylor (Paramount) – $445,000 – $326 PTA – $29.6M cume
15. Tyler Perry’s Meet the Browns (Lionsgate) – $394,000 – $584 PTA – $41M cume
*Shine a Light (Paramount) – $250,000 – $1,136 PTA – $3.5M cume
*The Counterfeiters (Sony Classics) – $95,000 – $1,462 PTA – $3.4M cume
*NEW – Where in the World is Osama Bin Laden (Weinstein) – $60,000 – $588 PTA – $99,000 cume
*The Visitor (Overture Films) – $58,000 – $3,222 PTA – $208,000 cume
*Young @ Heart (Fox Searchlight) – $48,000 – $1,455 PTA – $159,000 cume
*Priceless (IDP Films) – $44,000 – $1,571 PTA – $592,000 cume
*Blueberry Nights (Weinstein) – $32,000 – $542 PTA – $221,000 cume
*NEW – The First Saturday in May (Truly Indie) – $21,000 – $1,050 PTA – $41,000 cume
*The Flight of the Red Balloon (IFC Films) – $15,000 – $1,364 PTA – $110,000 cume
*NEW – Pathology – $13,000 – $283 PTA – $25,000 cume
*NEW – Zombie Strippers (Sony Repertory) – $6,500 – $406 PTA – $11,300 cume
*NEW – The Life Before Her Eyes (Magnolia) – $6,000 – $750 PTA – $10,500 cume
*Body of War (Film Sales Group) – $5,390 – $1,078 PTA – $37,000 cume
*Ben X (Equinoxe) – $4,000 – $2,000 PTA – $49,000 cume
*NEW – Constantine’s Sword (First Run) – $3,800 – $1,900 PTA – $7,220 cume
*The Singing Revolution (Abramorama) – $1,900 – $1,900 PTA – $66,000 cume
*NEW – Kiss the Bride (Regent) – $1,900 – $380 – $3,700 cume
*NEW – Emotional Arithmetic (Seville) – $1,100 – $550 PTA – $2,000 cume
*NEW – Anamorph (IFC Films) – $917 – $917 PTA – $1,751 cume
*NEW – Four Minutes (Independent) – $545 – $545 PTA – $1,050 cume
*NEW – Jada (Independent) – $408 – $82 PTA – $668 cume

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – The Forbidden Kingdom (Lionsgate) – $20.55M – $6,522 PTA – $20.55M cume
2. NEW – Forgetting Sarah Marshall (Universal) – $17M – $6,073 PTA – $17M cume
3. Prom Night (Sony) – $9.11M – $3,377 PTA – $32.5M cume
4. NEW – 88 Minutes (Sony) – $6.9M – $3,183 PTA – $6.9M cume
5. Nim’s Island (Fox) – $5.75M – $1,756 PTA – $32.9M cume
6. 21 (Sony) – $5.6M – $1,929 PTA – $70M cume
7. Street Kings (Fox) – $4.17M – $1,691 PTA – $20M cume
8. Horton Hears a Who (Fox) – $3.57M – $1,341 PTA – $144.4M cume
9. Leatherheads (Universal) – $3.07M – $1,100 PTA – $26.6M cume
10. NEW – Expelled: No Intelligence Allowed (Rocky Mountain Pictures) – $2.94M – $2,799 PTA – $2.94M cume
11. Superhero Movie (Weinstein/MGM) – $1.63M – $868 PTA – $23.6M cume
12. Smart People (Miramax) – $1.6M – $1,437 PTA – $6.8M cume
13. The Ruins (Dreamworks/Paramount) – $1.21M – $656 PTA – $15.8M cume
14. Drillbit Taylor (Paramount) – $1M – $732 PTA – $29.8M cume
15. Tyler Perry’s Meet the Browns (Lionsgate) – $800,000 – $1,185 PTA – $41.2M cume
*Shine a Light (Paramount) – $520,000 – $2,364 PTA – $3.7M cume
*The Counterfeiters (Sony Classics) – $215,000 – $3,308 PTA – $3.5M cume
*NEW – Where in the World is Osama Bin Laden (Weinstein) – $140,000 – $1,373 PTA – $140,000 cume
*The Visitor (Overture Films) – $135,000 – $7,500 PTA – $252,000 cume
*Young @ Heart (Fox Searchlight) – $115,000 – $3,485 PTA – $198,000 cume
*Priceless (IDP Films) – $95,000 – $3,393 PTA – $618,000 cume
*Blueberry Nights (Weinstein) – $80,000 – $1,356 PTA – $245,000 cume
*NEW – The First Saturday in May (Truly Indie) – $55,000 – $2,750 PTA – $55,000 cume
*The Flight of the Red Balloon (IFC Films) – $36,000 – $3,273 PTA – $122,000 cume
*NEW – Pathology – $33,000 – $717 PTA – $33,000 cume
*NEW – Zombie Strippers (Sony Repertory) – $15,000 – $938 PTA – $15,000 cume
*NEW – The Life Before Her Eyes (Magnolia) – $15,000 – $1,875 PTA – $15,000 cume
*Body of War (Film Sales Group) – $14,000 – $2,800 PTA – $46,000 cume
*Ben X (Equinoxe) – $11,000 – $5,500 PTA – $52,000 cume
*NEW – Constantine’s Sword (First Run) – $10,000 – $5,000 PTA – $10,000 cume
*The Singing Revolution (Abramorama) – $5,000 – $5,000 PTA – $67,000 cume
*NEW – Kiss the Bride (Regent) – $4,900 – $980 – $4,900 cume
*NEW – Emotional Arithmetic (Seville) – $2,700 – $1,350 PTA – $2,700 cume
*NEW – Anamorph (IFC Films) – $2,400 – $2,400 PTA – $2,400 cume
*NEW – Four Minutes (Independent) – $1,367 – $1,367 PTA – $1,367 cume
*NEW – Jada (Independent) – $880 – $176 PTA – $880 cume

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